Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

Morán-Tejéda, Enrique; Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Jorge; López‐Moreno, Juan I.; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.053

Cited by 72 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Therefore, the prediction of the streamflows under the climate change scenarios was performed with datadriven hydrological models developed using the M5 algorithm (Quinlan, 1992). M5 has been shown to have skill in modelling daily streamflow (Solomatine and Dulal, 2003;Taghi Sattari et al, 2013), including in studies involving climate change (Muñoz-Mas et al, 2016), and it is sufficiently fast to deal proficiently with larger datasets (Quinlan, 2017) Mathematically, M5 is a kind of decision tree that, instead of assigning a single value to each terminal node, assigns a multi-linear regression model (Quinlan, 1992). Therefore, the dataset is hierarchically divided into homogeneous parts and a multi-linear model is adjusted to every part (Hettiarachchi et al, 2005).…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following previous studies, the M5 hydrological models were trained by employing the daily, monthly and quarterly data lags of historical precipitation and air temperature collected at meteorological stations within or nearby the target river basins as input variables (Table 2) (Solomatine and Dulal, 2003;Taghi Sattari et al, 2013;Muñoz-Mas et al, 2016). These three groups of variables were intended to reflect the causes of peak, normal and base flows.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Luce and Holden, 2009;Leppi et al, 2012) and, more specifically, in the Iberian Peninsula (e.g. Ceballos-Barbancho et al, 2008;Lorenzo-Lacruz et al, 2012;Morán-Tejeda et al, 2014). However, detailed predictions are uncommon (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Beer and Anderson, 2013;Eby et al, 2014); however, the combined effects of rising stream temperatures and reductions in streamflow remain relatively unexamined, with some exceptions (e.g. Wenger et al, 2011;Muñoz-Mas et al, 2016). Jonsson and Jonsson (2009) predicted that the expected effects of climate change on water temperatures and streamflow will have implications for the migration, ontogeny, growth and life-history traits of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar Linnaeus, 1758, and brown trout, Salmo trutta Linnaeus, 1758.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Saez

Muñoz‐Mas²,

Solana‐Gutiérrez³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. −49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 • C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 • C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

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Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Saez

Muñoz‐Mas²,

Solana‐Gutiérrez³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Such decrease may be related to an increase of temperatures, between 1 and 1.5 ºC for the Iberian peninsula [6], and to changes in land cover resulting from farmland abandonment [7] and increase in forest density [8]. The impact of a warming process has involved an increment of the atmospheric evaporative demand [9,10] and changes in snow accumulation and melting, facts that also explain the decrease of the streamflow, and the seasonal shifts in streamflow timing [11]. Given the strong climate seasonality in the Mediterranean region in which a strong dry season is recorded in summer coinciding with the period of higher water demand, water management is a key issue in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Zabalza-Martínez

Vicente‐Serrano

López‐Moreno

et al. 2017

Proceedings of First International Electronic Conference on the Hydrological Cycle

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Abstract:The water management of Boadella-Darnius reservoir (NE Spain) has been analysed for the period 1971-2013 to understand the different strategies applied in the past. Streamflow has been projected under climate conditions included in the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia (TCCC) and under land-use change scenarios. We have simulated Darnius-Boadella reservoir inflow (2021-2050) using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) with two objectives: (i) to analyse the impact of climate and land-use changes on the water resources of the basin and (ii) to analyse the different plausible strategies of water management at mid-term period . Results reveal a clear negative trend in dam inflow (-34.7%) since it was built in 1971. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar trend at mid-term (2021-2050) with -31.1% under climate and land-use change conditions. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the possible dam inflow decrease, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context

Martínez-Fernández

Oorschot

Smit

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

Abstract: 13Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of 14 climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to

Cited by 72 publications

References 46 publications

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

The influence of climate and land-cover scenarios on dam management strategies in a high water pressure catchment in North-east Spain

Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context

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