Streamflow Variations in Monthly, Seasonal, Annual and Extreme Values Using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis

Ashraf, Muhammad Salman; Ahmad, Ijaz; Khan, Noor Muhammad; Zhang, Fan; Bilal, Ahmed; Guo, Jiali

doi:10.1007/s11269-020-02723-0

Cited by 71 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The high flows observed at these stations are completely consistent with [60,61] who proposed increased flows at Shigar and Shyok while decreased flows at Daniyor Bridge (Hunza River). Similarly, the increasing trends of flows align with the recent studies [28,62,63].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Yaseen

Latif

Waseem

et al. 2022

Water

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The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) features the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH). The snow and glacier meltwater contribution feeds 10 major river basins downstream including Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Jhelum, Kabul, Shyok and Shigar. Climate change is likely to fluctuate the runoff generated from such river basins concerning high and low streamflows. Widening the lens of focus, the present study examines the magnitude and timing of high flows variability as well as trends variability in low streamflows using Sen’s slope and the Mann-Kendall test in UIB from 1981 to 2016. The results revealed that the trend in the magnitude of the high flows decreased at most of the sub-basins including the Jhelum, Indus and Kabul River basins. Significantly increased high flows were observed in the glacier regime of UIB at Shigar and Shyok while decreased flows were predominant in Hunza River at Daniyor Bridge. A similar proclivity of predominantly reduced flows was observed in nival and rainfall regimes in terms of significant negative trends in the Jhelum, Kunhar, Neelum and Poonch River basins. The timing of the high flows has not changed radically as magnitude at all gauging stations. For the low flows, decreasing significant trends were detected in the annual flows as well as in other extremes of low flows (1-day, 7-day, 15-day). The more profound and decreasing pattern of low flows was observed in summer at most of the gauging stations; however, such stations exhibited increased low flows in autumn, winter and spring. The decrease in low flows indicates the extension of dry periods particularly in summer. The high-water demand in summer will be compromised due to consistently reducing summer flows; the lower the water availability, the lower will be the crop yield and electricity generation.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Yaseen

Latif

Waseem

et al. 2022

Water

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“…According to the literature review, the ITM approach proposed by Şen (2012) proved its effectiveness and success for partial trend identification on hydrology and earth science time series and has been used in hundred research papers for trend detection in various types of time series, such as rainfall (e.g., Achite and Caloiero 2021;Benzater et al 2021;Boudiaf et al 2021;Harkat and Kisi 2021;), streamflow (Ashraf et al 2021;Yilmaz and Tosunoglu 2019;Kişi et The success of ITM is the result of several scientific and technical advances that improve its performance, especially in enhancing the graphical visualization of significant trends. Under different autoregressive (AR) process magnitude, Şen (2014) concluded that ITM does not require assumptions or hypotheses.…”

Section: New Insights From the Proposed Hybrid Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving the visualization of rainfall trends using various innovative trend methodologies with time–frequency-based methods

et al. 2022

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In this paper, the Innovative Trend Methodology (ITM) and their inspired approaches, i.e., Double (D-ITM) and Triple (T-ITM), were combined with Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) time frequency-based method. The new hybrid methods (i.e., ITM-HHT, D-ITM-HHT, and T-ITM-HHT) were proposed and compared to the DWT-based methods in order to recommend the best method. Three total annual rainfall time series from 1920 to 2011 were selected from three hydrological basins in Northern Algeria. The new combined models (ITM-HHT, D-ITM-HHT, and T-ITM-HHT) revealed that the 1950–1975 period has significant wet episodes followed by a long-term drought observed in the western region of Northern Algeria, while Northeastern Algeria presented a wet period since 2001. The proposed approaches successfully detected, in a visible manner, hidden trends presented in the signals, which proves that the removal of some modes of variability from the original rainfall signals can increase the accuracy of the used approaches.

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“…If the p-value is greater than the level of significance, the trend is not significant and Ho is accepted. (Chu et al 2016;Agbo et al 2021b) (Şen 2012) This method which was proposed by (Şen 2012, 2014) was first applied for hydro-meteorological time series data and has been applied for various trend tests of various parameters (Kisi and Ay 2014;Ay and Kisi 2015;Demir and Kisi 2016;Alashan 2020;Phuong et al 2020;Ashraf et al 2021).…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applying analysis techniques on atmospheric variables has led to innovations and discovery of new and better methods of analysis, leading to the better interpretation and presentation of results. Distribution dependent (parametric) and distribution free (non-parametric) methods have been mostly applied for the study of various atmospheric variables (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975;Gorbunova and Lemeshko 2012;Ashraf et al 2021;Asadi and Karami 2022). There have been some studies of the trend analysis of atmospheric parameters in some locations in Nigeria using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test (Amadi et al 2014;Salami et al 2014;Alhaji et al 2018;Agbo 2021;Agbo and Ekpo 2021), but together with this, this study also will adopt the new (Şen 2012) method for the trend analysis of long term refractivity and EPT parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Mann–Kendall and Şen’s innovative trend method for climatic parameters over Nigeria’s climatic zones

2022

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Creating innovative ways for the identification of trends is a very vital part of atmospheric studies. Different climatic locations present their unique variations, calling for the dynamism of trend analysis. In addition to the widely adopted Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, the new Şen's innovative trend analysis (ITA) method has been applied to analyze the trends of refractivity related (atmosphere pressure -AP, vapour pressure -VP, ambient temperature -T) and equivalent potential temperature -EPT related parameters (mixing ratio of air -R, absolute temperature at the lifting condensation level -TL, potential temperature -PT). This analysis was perfomed using 40 years' data (1981 -2020) from 4 stations from each climatic zone of Nigeria (Calabar -Tropical monsoon, Ibadan -Tropical Savannah, Kano -Warm semiarid climate, and Kukawa -Warm desert climate). The MK trend test identified monotonic (entirely increasing or decreasing) trends for specific parameters across the climatic locations; the Şen's ITA method was important in the identification of trends even for parameters that showed non-monotonic variations. Other comparisons between both methods were outlined and explained; correlation heat maps were used to show the relationship between all parameters for each climatic location, describing the effect of climate on the variations of these parameters. The low, medium and high values revealed from the Şen's ITA method can be informative for telecom and renewable energy applications, guiding engineers and system designers to understand the trends within range of values for a particular climatic parameter.

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Streamflow Variations in Monthly, Seasonal, Annual and Extreme Values Using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis

Cited by 71 publications

References 30 publications

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Improving the visualization of rainfall trends using various innovative trend methodologies with time–frequency-based methods

Comparison of Mann–Kendall and Şen’s innovative trend method for climatic parameters over Nigeria’s climatic zones

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