Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events

Abstract

PurposeEnhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning.Design/methodology/approachThe research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress.FindingsThe paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies.Originality/valueThe value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.

Variable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment. An application case in Lima, Peru

“…Levi et al, 2018), as well for risk-communication purposes (e.g. Birkmann et al, 2020). We have systematically investigated several risk scenarios for the residential building stock of Metropolitan Lima (Peru) classified in terms of one set of earthquake vulnerability classes and two sets of tsunami vulnerability classes.…”

Who is calling the shot? Risk culture experiments on bi-level governments

“…This result is in line with previous research regarding the influence of informed risk. One study that uses IRD to assess the risk profile and vulnerability of urban and local planning on facing natural disasters, developed multiple scenarios and this enhances public risk management on natural disasters (Birkmann et al , 2020). Other experiment research shows that telling the experiment subjects regarding risk descriptions within a disaster risk management system, along with the possibility and consequences of the risk that may arise, will significantly influence the perceived benefits of the system positively (Lin et al , 2017).…”

“…Current development in risk management (RM) application in the governmental sector tends to lean toward a specific field, such as government financing, disaster management, debt and audit (Al-Shbail, 2020; Birkmann et al , 2020; Consiglio and Zenios, 2015; Dobre et al , 2015); in all cases, RM benefits the government. However, current research trends seldom research RM relations with the general policy-making and budgeting of a government, even though research shows that government budgeting, expenditure and planning will affect society’s growth and its capability to achieve the maximum beneficial outcome (Ghourchian and Yilmazkuday, 2020; Uppal and Dunphy, 2019).…”

Increasing Trust in Climate Vulnerability Projections

“…It is noteworthy that there is some overlap to what is referred to in this paper as "vulnerability projections" and what some term as "vulnerability scenarios." Scenarios, however, are typically used for exploring heuristically the implications of different decision choices, plotting how to achieve a desired state in-light of multiple future stresses, and/or supporting decision making under uncertainty (Birkmann et al, 2020;Flynn et al, 2018).…”

“…In the context of community‐based research, such projections are largely qualitative and narrative in nature, may extrapolate from current vulnerability or explicitly focus on potential future trends over specific timeframes, and draw upon diverse methods including interviews, surveys, life histories, focus groups, participatory videography, participant observation, scenario planning, expert judgment, and foresight etc (Ford, Keskitalo, et al., 2010; Jurgilevich, 2021; Magnan et al., 2022; Singh et al., 2019). It is noteworthy that there is some overlap to what is referred to in this paper as “vulnerability projections” and what some term as “vulnerability scenarios.” Scenarios, however, are typically used for exploring heuristically the implications of different decision choices, plotting how to achieve a desired state in‐light of multiple future stresses, and/or supporting decision making under uncertainty (Birkmann et al., 2020; Flynn et al., 2018).…”