[1] Existing observational analyses demonstrate that the electrostatic potential jump across collisionless shocks (Áf 0 in the de Hoffmann-Teller frame) strongly influences the behavior of electrons. The empirical relations inferred from these data provide crucial constraints on shock-related phenomena, such as foreshock electron beams and radio emission. However, a theoretical interpretation of these relations, especially their parameter dependences, is necessary. We present an analytic model for Áf 0 which incorporates the full dependences on solar wind and shock conditions. The model involves three assumptions for the spatially varying number density n(x), magnetic field B(x), and perpendicular and parallel electron temperatures (T e? (x) and T ek (x) across the shock: (1) n(x) / B(x) in a piecewise linear fashion; (2) T e? (x) / B(x); and (3) ÁT ek / ÁT e? . Empirical and theoretical arguments for these assumptions exist for moderate to strong shocks, breaking down for weak shocks (assumption 3) and shocks where T e increases by a factor >4 (assumption 2). The model is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the known empirical relations between Áf 0 and the jumps in T e and B across the shock, providing a theoretical basis for them. We use the model to test for a possible correlation between Áf 0 and the change in the normal component of the ion ram energy, ÁE ram . We find that the relation between Áf 0 and ÁE ram is only approximately linear over a range of shockfront locations for constant solar wind conditions, with the relation depending strongly on the angle q bu,1 between the upstream flow speed u 1 and magnetic field B 1 and on the upstream ratio u 1 /v A,1 of flow speed to Alfvèn speed. Our model provides a natural interpretation for the spread of observational data around the best linear fit suggested by Hull et al. [2000].