Structure, use, and validation of the IEUBK model.

Mickle, Marlin H.

doi:10.1289/ehp.98106s61531

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Internal Exposure Uptake Biokinetic model (IEUBK), following an approach used in previous studies (Edwards et al, 2009;Akers et al, 2015;Deshommes et al, 2013). The model has been demonstrated to be reasonably accurate at predicting BLLs (Hogan et al, 1998;Mickle, 1998). A number of scenarios were run through the model based on the range of lead concentrations observed in drinking water found in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As weight data was not recorded for participants in this study, body weights of light, average and heavy adults (40 kg: 25.6 µg/day, 65 kg: 41.6 µg/day and 90 kg: 57.6 µg/day respectively) have been taken from the National Health Service database (NHS, 2015). Children's lead consumption is dealt with below due to the availability of an effective model to determine BLLs from lead exposures, including tap water (Mickle, 1998;Triantafyllidou et al, 2014).…”

Section: Lead Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intake of lead (Pb) from tap water of homes with leaded and low lead plumbing systems

Jarvis

Quy²,

MacAdam

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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Methods of quantifying consumer exposure to lead in drinking water are increasingly of interest worldwide, especially those that account for consumer drinking habits and the semirandom nature of water lead release from plumbing systems. A duplicate intake protocol was developed in which individuals took a sub-sample from each measured drink they consumed in the home over three days in both winter and summer. The protocol was applied in two different water company regional areas (WC1 and WC2), selected to represent high risk situations in England, with the presence or absence of lead service pipes or phosphate corrosion control. Consumer exposure to lead was highest in properties with lead service pipes, served by water without P dosing. The protocol indicated that a small number of individuals in the study, all from homes with lead service pipes, consumed lead at levels that exceeded current guidance from the European Food Standards Agency. Children's potential blood lead levels (BLLs) were estimated using the Internal Exposure Uptake Biokinetic model (IEUBK). The IEUBK model predicted that up to 46% of children aged 0-7 years old may have elevated BLLs (>5 µg/dL) when consuming the worst case drinking water quality (>99%ile). Estimating blood lead levels using the IEUBK model for more typical lead concentrations in drinking water identified in this study (between 0.1-7.1 µg/L), predicts that elevated BLLs may affect a small proportion of children between 0-7 years old.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lead Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intake of lead (Pb) from tap water of homes with leaded and low lead plumbing systems

Jarvis

Quy²,

MacAdam

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Absorption is calculated by multiplying the lead intake value with the absorption fraction (AF) value (expressed in % of lead intake). And the biokinetic component can simulate the absorption, transportation, metabolism and elimination in the body, and estimates BLLs finally [ 18 , 19 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Regional Human Health Risks from Lead Contamination in Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

Cheng

Xie

et al. 2015

PLoS ONE

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Identification and management the 'critical risk areas' where hotspot lead exposures are a potential risk to human health, become a major focus of public health efforts in China. But the knowledge of health risk assessment of lead pollution at regional and national scales is still limited in China. In this paper, under the guidance of 'sources-pathways-receptors' framework, regional human health risk assessment model for lead contamination was developed to calculate the population health risk in Yunnan province. And the cluster and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) analysis was taken to classify and calculate regional health risk and the decomposition of the regional health risk in the greatest health risk region, respectively. The results showed that Yunnan province can be divided into three areas. The highest health risk levels, located in northeastern Yunnan, including Kunming, Qujing, Zhaotong region. In those regions, lead is present at high levels in air, food, water and soil, and high population density which pose a high potential population risk to the public. The current study also reveals that most regional health risk was derived from the child receptors (age above 3 years) 4.3 times than the child receptors (age under 3years), and ingestion of lead-contaminated rice was found to be the most significant contributor to the health risk (accounting for more than 49 % health risk of total). This study can provide a framework for regional risk assessment in China and highlighted some indicators and uncertainties.

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“…Thornton and Sorli (1982) discussed problems associated 5.16 with validating the input/output model after forecasted data had been substituted for missing information. According to Mickle (1998) the most important point is predicting past outcomes with the model.…”

Section: Verification Validation and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

Thompson¹,

Whitney²,

Weimar³

et al. 2011

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This report represents the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent-a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to developing testable hypotheses for the macro-level assessment methodologies is provided. The outcome of this works suggests that we should develop a Bayes Net for micro-level analysis and continue to focus on Bayes Net, System Dynamics and Economic Input/Output models for assessing macro-level problems. Simultaneously, we need to develop metrics for assessing intent in export control, including the risks and consequences associated with all aspects of export control. v Abbreviations and Acronyms ACE agent-based computational economy ACH Analysis of Competing Hypotheses BIS Bureau of Industry and Security CA Content Analysis CGE computable general equilibrium

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Structure, use, and validation of the IEUBK model.

Cited by 13 publications

References 8 publications

Intake of lead (Pb) from tap water of homes with leaded and low lead plumbing systems

Intake of lead (Pb) from tap water of homes with leaded and low lead plumbing systems

Assessment of Regional Human Health Risks from Lead Contamination in Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

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