Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures

Buffoni, G.; Pasquali, Sara

doi:10.1007/s00285-006-0058-2

Cited by 39 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Population abundance N ij (t) at each stage i in cell j at time t was obtained by considering a discretisation of the von Foerster Equations. 20,21 The model simulates an entire year of B. tabaci population dynamics with a time step of 1 h. This small time interval guarantees convergence of the discretised von Foerster equations. The initial condition for whitefly is 0.1 adults plant −1 on 1 March.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Gilioli

Pasquali

Parisi

et al. 2014

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND Bemisia tabaci is a serious pest of agricultural and horticultural crops in greenhouses and fields around the world. This paper deals with the distribution of the pest under field conditions. In Europe, the insect is currently found in coastal regions of Mediterranean countries where it is subject to quarantine regulations. To assess the risk presented by B. tabaci to Europe, the area of potential establishment of this insect, in light of the climate change scenario, was assessed by a temperature‐dependent physiologically based demographic model (PBDM). RESULTS The simulated potential distribution under current climate conditions has been successfully validated with the available field records of B. tabaci in Europe. Considering climate change scenarios of +1 and +2 °C, range expansion by B. tabaci is predicted, particularly in Spain, France, Italy, Greece and along the Adriatic coast of the Balkans. Nonetheless, even under the scenario of +2 °C, northern European countries are not likely to be at risk of B. tabaci establishment because of climatic limitations. CONCLUSION Model validation with field observations and evaluation of uncertainties associated with model parameter variability support the reliability of model results. The PBDM developed here can be applied to other organisms and offers significant advantages for assessing the potential distribution of invasive species. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry

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Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Gilioli

Pasquali

Parisi

et al. 2014

Pest Management Science

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“…A further possible extension concerns the population dynamics. In this article, a simple model is presented based on the exponential growth of the vector insect, but more complex population dynamics aspects can be considered, for instance, a stage-structured population dynamics (28) or the temperature-dependent responses of development, mortality, and fecundity. (29) A further level of complexity can be introduced modeling the transmission of the virus to the host plant and the way in which the virus per se is able to establish (e.g., considering the competition with the already established virus strains).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Strategies for Interception, Detection, and Eradication in Plant Biosecurity

et al. 2014

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The introduction of invasive species causes damages from the economic and ecological point of view. Interception of plant pests and eradication of the established populations are two management options to prevent or limit the risk posed by an invasive species. Management options generate costs related to the interception at the point of entry, and the detection and eradication of established field populations. Risk managers have to decide how to allocate resources between interception, field detection, containment, and eradication minimizing the expected total costs. In this work is considered an optimization problem aiming at determining the optimal allocation of resources to minimize the expected total costs of the introduction of Bemisia tabaci-transmitted viruses in Europe. The optimization problem takes into account a probabilistic model for the estimation of the percentage of viruliferous insect populations arriving through the trade of commodities, and a population dynamics model describing the process of the vector populations' establishment and spread. The time of field detection of viruliferous insect populations is considered as a random variable. The solution of the optimization problem allows to determine the optimal allocation of the search effort between interception and detection/eradication. The behavior of the search effort as a function of efficacy or search in interception and in detection is then analyzed. The importance of the vector population growth rate and the probability of virus establishment are also considered in the analysis of the optimization problem.

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“…Because of its economic importance, several age-stagestructured weather driven models for L. botrana have been developed to predict adult flight phenology for field integrated pest management (IPM) decision support (Baumgärtner & Baronio, 1988;Briolini et al, 1997;Severini et al, 2005;Buffoni & Pasquali, 2007;Ainseba et al, 2011;Gilioli et al, 2016). Gutierrez et al (2012) linked physiologically-based demographic models (PBDMs) for grapevine (Wermelinger et al, 1991) and L. botrana and used the system to assess the invasiveness of L. botrana in the U.S.A.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate warming effects on grape and grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) in thePalearcticregion

Gutiérrez

Ponti

Gilioli³

et al. 2017

Agri and Forest Entomology

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is the principal native pest of grape in the Palearctic region. In the present study, we assessed prospectively the relative abundance of the moth in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using linked physiologically-based demographic models for grape and L. botrana. The model includes the effects of temperature, day-length and fruit stage on moth development rates, survival and fecundity. 2 Daily weather data for 1980-2010 were used to simulate the dynamics of grapevine and L. botrana in 4506 lattice cells across the region. Average grape yield and pupae per vine were used as metrics of favourability. The results were mapped using the grass Geographic Information System (http://grass.osgeo.org). 3 The model predicts a wide distribution for L. botrana with highest populations in warmer regions in a wide band along latitude 40 ∘ N. 4 The effects of climate warming on grapevine and L. botrana were explored using regional climate model projections based on the A1B scenario of an average +1.8 ∘ C warming during the period 2040-2050 compared with the base period (1960)(1961)(1962)(1963)(1964)(1965)(1966)(1967)(1968)(1969)(1970). Under climate change, grape yields increase northwards and with a higher elevation but decrease in hotter areas. Similarly, L. botrana levels increase in northern areas but decrease in the hot areas where summer temperatures approach its upper thermal limit.

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Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures

Cited by 39 publications

References 26 publications

Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

Optimal Strategies for Interception, Detection, and Eradication in Plant Biosecurity

Climate warming effects on grape and grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) in thePalearcticregion

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