Study of structural break points in global and hemispheric temperature series by piecewise regression

Werner, R.; Valev, Dimitar; Danov, D.; Guineva, V.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.09.007

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This procedure objectively estimates the change point of different tendencies in time series by combining a weighted least-squares criterion with a brute-force search and the linear trends before and after the discontinuity 58 . It is similar to the piecewise linear regression method with one change point reported in other publications 6 59 60 . The break function model for time series X(T ), written as…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

Song

Wang

Tang

2016

Sci Rep

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The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

Song

Wang

Tang

2016

Sci Rep

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“…The statistic investigations are more complex because the global annual temperature anomalies series have structural breaks. In the case of filtered temperature series generated by removal of the AMO temperature influence the global temperatures have a structural break approximately in 1970, as well [38,44]. The aim of the present paper is not the statistical proof of the cause-effect relationship.…”

Section: Fig 7 the Adjusted By Equation (3) Temperatures (Thin Bluementioning

confidence: 87%

The global temperature anomalies related to the slowdown of atmospheric CO2 concentration observed from 1939 up to 1950

Werner¹,

Guineva²

2019

ARB

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It is very well known that carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulated in the atmosphere is the main climate driver. The first precise direct continuous measurements of the atmospheric CO2 concentration were provided from Keeling since 1958 at Mauna Loa Observatory. The measurements are going on up to day. Law Dom ice core drilling was started in 1969 by the Australian ANARE program.The slowdown of the World economic development during the World War I, the Great Depression and the World War II lead to a deceleration of the CO2 emissions. The integration of the total CO2 emissions using the impulse response function concept shows that the observed slowdown of the CO2 emission is not sufficient to explain the CO2 plateau and additional CO2 sinks are necessary. Based on multiple regression models adjusted global temperatures were determined by removal of temperature influences other than related to CO2. The adjusted temperatures follow close the CO2 radiation term. The difference between the estimated adjusted temperature time evolution with and without the CO2 slowdown and also the short time trends demonstrate very clear the close relation between the temperature change and the CO2 radiative forcing. It is shown that the slowdown of the CO2 emission in the period from 1939 to 1950 and the related CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, caused at least partially by human activities, generate slower increase of the temperature anomalies. Consequently CO2 is the leading variable of the relation surface temperature -CO2.

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“…This modelling approach enables for the identification of changes in the outcome determined as trends or slopes and the location of change points [ 24 ]. Breakpoint regression has found several scientific applications: it has been applied, e.g., for the detection of changes in climate over time [ 25 ] and in time-series data [ 26 ]. One study examined annually aggregated data of suicides and found that changes of suicide methods over time coincided with governmental interventions, i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards the achievement of universal health coverage in the Democratic Republic of Congo: does the Country walk its talk?

Biringanine

Richter

Furaha

et al. 2022

BMC Health Serv Res

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In 2009, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) started its journey towards achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This study examines the evolution of financial risk protection and health outcomes indicators in the context of the commitment of DRC to UHC. To measure the effects of such a commitment on financial risk protection and health outcomes indicators, we analyse whether changes have occurred over the last two decades and, if applicable, when these changes happened. Using five variables as indicators for the measurement of the financial risk protection component, there as well retained three indicators to measure health outcomes. To identify time-related effects, we applied the parametric approach of breakpoint regression to detect whether the UHC journey has brought change and when exactly the change has occurred.Although there is a slight improvement in the financial risk protection indicators, we found that the adopted strategies have fostered access to healthcare for the wealthiest quantile of the population while neglecting the majority of the poorest. The government did not thrive persistently over the past decade to meet its commitment to allocate adequate funds to health expenditures. In addition, the support from donors appears to be unstable, unpredictable and unsustainable. We found a slight improvement in health outcomes attributable to direct investment in building health centres by the private sector and international organizations. Overall, our findings reveal that the prevention of catastrophic health expenditure is still not sufficiently prioritized by the country, and mostly for the majority of the poorest. Therefore, our work suggests that DRC’s UHC journey has slightly contributed to improve the financial risk protection and health outcomes indicators but much effort should be undertaken.

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Study of structural break points in global and hemispheric temperature series by piecewise regression

Cited by 17 publications

References 43 publications

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

The global temperature anomalies related to the slowdown of atmospheric CO2 concentration observed from 1939 up to 1950

Towards the achievement of universal health coverage in the Democratic Republic of Congo: does the Country walk its talk?

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