Study on the Flood and Drought Risk as of Global Warming by Regional Climate Model

Abstract

The influence of global warming on hazard risk is estimated from the results of the regional climate model by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model outputs are expected to be useful for the risk assessment of the future. Before beginning the risk assessment, the model output values during 1981-2000 were verified by comparing with observed precipitation data. The verification shows that the precision of the models are generally well in representation of the precipitation, the normal value of the monthly precipitation and the annual maximum daily precipitation in each region. According to the analysis from the model outputs, the extreme daily precipitation in 100-yr time period will increase in some parts of western Hokkaido, northern Tohoku region, Hokuriku region and Nansei islands during 2081-2100. While, the result of the seasonal variation of precipitation shows that the precipitation will decrease especially in many areas in Japan except Hokkaido region from winter to spring, and the drought risk will increase there.

Nationwide assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural water resources in Japan using multiple emission scenarios in CMIP5

“…A few studies have dealt with water resources assessments (Wada et al, 2005;Tachikawa et al, 2011;Kotsuki et al, 2013). However, these analyses were based on only one climate scenario; they did not consider uncertainty arising in the impact assessments.…”