No abstract

The influence of global warming on hazard risk is estimated from the results of the regional climate model by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model outputs are expected to be useful for the risk assessment of the future. Before beginning the risk assessment, the model output values during 1981-2000 were verified by comparing with observed precipitation data. The verification shows that the precision of the models are generally well in representation of the precipitation, the normal value of the monthly precipitation and the annual maximum daily precipitation in each region. According to the analysis from the model outputs, the extreme daily precipitation in 100-yr time period will increase in some parts of western Hokkaido, northern Tohoku region, Hokuriku region and Nansei islands during 2081-2100. While, the result of the seasonal variation of precipitation shows that the precipitation will decrease especially in many areas in Japan except Hokkaido region from winter to spring, and the drought risk will increase there.

正会員 博(工) 国土技術政策総合研究所 流域管理研究官(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地)2 工修 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地) 3 正会員 政策修 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地)The influence of global warming on hazard risk is estimated from the results of the regional climate model by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model outputs are expected to be useful for the risk assessment of the future. Before beginning the risk assessment, the model output values during 1981-2000 were verified by comparing with observed precipitation data. The verification shows that the precision of the models are generally well in representation of the extreme precipitation distribution of the annual maximum daily precipitation. According to the analysis from the model outputs, the extreme daily precipitation in 100-yr time period will increase in some parts of western Hokkaido, northern Tohoku region, Hokuriku region and Nansei islands during 2081-2100.

No abstract

The influence of global warming to hazard risk is estimated from the results of regional climate change models by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The output size of the models is about 20km. Before risk assessment, the outputs were checked through comparisons among monitoring data, those from global climate change models and regional climate change models in 1981-2000. The comparison shows that the outputs of regional climate change models are meaningful only in the east parts of Japan, while those in the west need recalculation. Even though the recalculation are in the middle of process, the result shows that the annualmaximum daily precipitation in 2081-2100 will increase in the southern Hokkaido, Sanriku, southern Tohoku, and middle Kanto plain while the change on flood risk will differ region by region. It also shows that seasonal precipitation in 2081-2100 will decrease from winter and spring in many parts of the eastern Japan. This study implies that more detailed analysis in regional bases will be needed for flood and drought risk analyses.