This paper is an overview of a project concerned with “Early warning for torrential rainfall/tornado” under “Enhancement of Societal Resiliency against Natural Disasters,” which is one of eleven themes of the SIP (Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program under the Council for Science, Technology and Innovation, the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan). The characteristics of the project are the development of a multi-parameter phased array weather radar (MP-PAWR) that enables the accomplishment of an accurate three-dimensional model of precipitation over 30 s within a 60 km radius. Various products developed ducts using MP-PAWR and other observations, and numerical predictions, are also discussed, with a demonstration experiment to provide early warnings for torrential rainfall and related disasters. For end users such as local governments and general citizens, the final goal of this project is the social implementation of these products.

正会員 博(工) 国土交通省 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部（〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭1）2 正会員 修(工) 国土交通省 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部（〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭1）The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) built the rainfall observation network composed of 38 X-band dual polarimetric radars called XRAIN. The results of verifying the accuracy of the XRAIN rainfall, attenuation correction caused underestimation of radar rainfall distant from radar, and that underestimation caused underestimation of the compositing rainfall close to radar. The method of attenuation correction was modified to correct for attenuation of the almost all intensity of rainfall. The compositing rainfall processing was modified to add the weighting function related to the distance from radar. Modifying of attenuation correction and compositing rainfall processing improved underestimation of XRAIN rainfall.

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正会員 博(工) 国土技術政策総合研究所 流域管理研究官(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地)2 工修 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地) 3 正会員 政策修 国土技術政策総合研究所 河川研究部(〒305-0804 茨城県つくば市旭一番地)The influence of global warming on hazard risk is estimated from the results of the regional climate model by Japan Meteorological Agency and Meteorological Research Institute. The horizontal resolution of the model is about 20km and the model outputs are expected to be useful for the risk assessment of the future. Before beginning the risk assessment, the model output values during 1981-2000 were verified by comparing with observed precipitation data. The verification shows that the precision of the models are generally well in representation of the extreme precipitation distribution of the annual maximum daily precipitation. According to the analysis from the model outputs, the extreme daily precipitation in 100-yr time period will increase in some parts of western Hokkaido, northern Tohoku region, Hokuriku region and Nansei islands during 2081-2100.