Subjective Probability and Its Measurement

Hampton, Juliet M.; Moore, P. G.; Thomas, Howard

doi:10.2307/2344419

Cited by 95 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Hampton, Moore and Thomas (1973) argue that the choice of a scoring rule is a subtle and difficult problem. They also feel that practical research is needed to discover whether the use of scoring rules, indeed, tends to evoke the right amount of effort from the assessor.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Building Implementable Marketing Models

Naert¹,

Leeflang²

1978

118

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An interesting introductory survey containing a substantial number of references is Hampton, Moore and Thomas (1973). 91.…”

Section: Probability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Implementable Marketing Models

Naert¹,

Leeflang²

1978

118

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“…(25). In fact, such fractions are estimated subjectively in practice (Hampton et al 1973;Tay et al 2013).…”

Section: Selection Of Steam Turbinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid Optimisation Model for the Synthesis of Centralised Utility System in Eco-Industrial Park

Teo

Wau

et al. 2017

Process Integr Optim Sustain

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Eco-industrial park (EIP) is a community of manufacturing and service businesses collaborating to manage environmental and resource (e.g. water, material and energy) issues together to preserve the environment while bringing financial benefit to the individual party. One way to achieve this goal is to integrate the EIP network via a centralised utility system (CUS), which facilitates the material and energy exchange among participating companies (or individual actors, IAs) in EIP. This work presents a hybrid model that combines superstructure-based optimisation approach and insight-based, automated targeting approach to synthesise a sustainable CUS for an EIP with the consideration of variations. The superstructure encompasses tri-generation system, wastewater treatment system and a steam distribution network that consider the use of mechanical drive steam turbine (MDST). Meanwhile, automated targeting approach is adapted to provide valuable insight and detailed allocation of resources within the network. In this work, the synthesis of CUS is analysed based on the economic performance and the total potential environmental impact of the system. Since such objectives are frequently contradictory in nature, fuzzy optimisation approach is adapted in this work to synthesise a sustainable CUS which fulfils the two important objectives. In addition, multi-period optimisation approach is applied to address the multiple operational periods with the presence of variations in supply of raw materials, market price of raw materials, demand for desired end products, etc. To illustrate the proposed framework, a palm oil processing complex (POPC) case study is solved.

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“…Thus, the problem of determining this distribution may be treated as a probability distribution agreement/aggregate/combined problem (Winkler and Cummings 1972;Hampton et al 1973;Ekel et al 2009). This probability distribution must fully reflect the information provided by these experts (Winkler 1981;Kaplan 1992).…”

Section: Experts' Knowledge Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Basic Concepts on Risk Analysis, Reliability and Maintenance

Almeida

Cavalcante

Alencar

et al. 2015

International Series in Operations Research &Amp; Management Science

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Abstract:Man's level of dependence on equipment is increasing. This degree of dependence requires high levels of availability, which has been changing the impact that disruption of these systems causes. For many systems, an interruption has consequences that go beyond the dimension of financial loss, thus justifying a multidimensional consequence approach by using multicriteria (MCDM/A) models. Thus, understanding the relationships between and among risk, reliability and maintenance (RRM) is essential in order to offer more comprehensive solutions to the various problems often treated in isolation from each other, and which are the most important problems of the competitive market. This chapter discusses fundamental topics about RRM, including tools for risk analysis and hazard identification, concepts of reliability, maintenance techniques such as RCM and TPM and eliciting expert's knowledge. These topics are presented in order to provide a basis for structuring different MCDM/A problems that are addressed in several chapters. Some fundamental aspects could be used as input to decision models in different forms such as attributes, objectives, criteria, and problem context. Basic Concepts on Risk AnalysisThere are many concepts on risk found in the literature and also different perceptions to it. However, if a decision is being made and risk is involved, then, the risk concept should combine consequences and probabilities, incorporating the DM's preferences over that, as seen in Chap. 2.Actually, a 'decision process' with no DM's preference has no decision being made, as discussed at the end of Chap. 1. Instead of that, that process either: a) has some preference structure incorporated within the model, at random; b) is just arbitrary following a previous decision of someone else.Even so, in most of real cases, the consequences are multidimensional, and therefore, require an MCDM/A approach for building a decision model. The following topics are mainly based on the basic RRM literature and do not incorporate the idea of decision support, as given in Chap. 2. That is, DM's preferences are not necessarily considered in the model.

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Subjective Probability and Its Measurement

Cited by 95 publications

References 71 publications

Building Implementable Marketing Models

Building Implementable Marketing Models

Hybrid Optimisation Model for the Synthesis of Centralised Utility System in Eco-Industrial Park

Basic Concepts on Risk Analysis, Reliability and Maintenance

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