Subseasonal intensity variation of the South Asian high in relationship to diabatic heating: observation and CMIP5 models

Wang, Shang; Ren, Xuejuan; Huang, Bo; Cubasch, Ulrich; Yang, Xiu‐Qun

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4266-4

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…In this study, we use daily precipitation, SLP, geopotential height (Z), zonal wind field (U), meridional wind field (V), and specific humidity (q) from the historical run experiments from 14 models in CMIP5, assessing whether these models can capture the relationship between heavy precipitation events and large‐scale climate modes (i.e., AO, NAO, EA, and SCAND) in observations across Europe. The relationships between heavy precipitation events and large‐scale climate modes are computed for E‐OBS and for each model on their original spatial resolutions; the results from GCMs are then interpolated to E‐OBS's grid to the comparison (e.g., Jiang et al ., 2015; Shang et al ., 2019). For each of the CMIP5 GCMs, we only consider the first member.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the capability of global climate models in reproducing the temporal clustering in heavy precipitation over Europe

Yang

Villarini

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Evaluating the capability of global climate models (GCMs) in reproducing the historical records represents a way of building confidence in their capability for future projections. Among the different ways of evaluating them, here we focus on their capability in reproducing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe in light of four climate modes [the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND)], and GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the large ensemble runs using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We use a peak over threshold (POT) approach to identify heavy precipitation events, and Cox regression to relate the occurrence of these events to the climate modes. We find that the GCMs can capture the temporal clustering in heavy precipitation across Europe as a function of these four climate modes; moreover, our findings indicate the GCMs can better reproduce the relationship between heavy precipitation and AO/SCAND, than NAO/EA. Comparing the results based on CMIP5 models and CESM, we find that the inter-model uncertainties are larger than the intra-model ones in most of the cases, even though CESM tends to have a poorer performance for EA; this shortcoming for CESM is likely due to the pattern of the Z500 anomalies which is different from the reference data when EA is in the positive phase, affecting the transport of moisture across Europe.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the capability of global climate models in reproducing the temporal clustering in heavy precipitation over Europe

Yang

Villarini

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In our prior work, Shang et al . () suggested that strengthening of the SAH is accompanied by above‐normal precipitation in the Asian monsoon regions. However, how and to what extent the SAH may exert influence on the PHR events is unclear and the difference between the influence of SAH on the different threshold PHR events has not been assessed in detail yet.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the South Asian high‐intensity variability on the persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves in Asian monsoon regions

Wang

Ren

Duan

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the modulation of the South Asian high's (SAH) intensity variation on the persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) and heat wave (HW) events over the Asian summer monsoon regions during summer 1979–2013. The first mode of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis performed on standardized subseasonal anomalies at 200‐hPa geopotential height over the SAH's main body (20°–5°N, 35°–110°E), reveals the intensity variation of the SAH with a 10–40‐day periodicity. The strengthening (weakening) of the SAH's main body is accompanied by negative (positive) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies and more (less) anomalous rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, southern foot of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and subtropical East Asia. Using different thresholds, the proportion for modest PHR events is approximately 30% and can reach up to 40–50% for extreme PHR events during the strong phase of SAH. About 20% of modest PHR events and only 10% of extreme PHR events occur under the weak phase of SAH, suggesting that SAH has a more significant impact on the occurrence of extreme PHR events over the south and East Asian regions. In contrast, HW events associated with strong SAH account for approximately 5–10% whereas an increased occurrence of HW events is observed during the weak phase of SAH with a ratio up to 15–20%. A much more intensified updraft flow, enhanced cross‐equatorial moisture flux and western North Pacific moisture flux is accompanied with strong SAH, which provide favourable conditions for occurrence of extreme PHR events, leading to less surface solar radiation anomalies. The mirror image is seen in the weak SAH phase, contributing to the decrease of extreme PHR events and increase of HW events. The above analysis indicates that the SAH provides significant modulation and impact on extreme rainfall and temperature events over the Asian monsoon regions on subseasonal timescale.

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“…The establishment of the SAH and the associated meridional movement of the ridgeline have close relationships with the onset of the Asian summer monsoon [3][4][5] and location of rain belt over East China 6,7 . Changes in the SAH have notable impacts on the weather and climate in many regions, such as precipitation over China [8][9][10][11] , India [12][13][14] , and the Korean peninsula [15][16][17][18] . The SAH can also impact precipitation and surface temperature over the North Pacific and North American regions by modulating atmospheric teleconnection patterns 19 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Potential impact of atmospheric heating over East Europe on the zonal shift in the South Asian high: the role of the Silk Road teleconnection

Cen

Chen

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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It is well recognized that the zonal shift in the South Asian High (SAH) has pronounced influences on weather and climate anomalies over surrounding and teleconnected regions. Hence, it is of great importance to investigate the factors related to the interannual variation in the zonal location of the SAH. This study indicates that the anomalous atmospheric apparent heat source () around east europe has a close relationship with the interannual variation in the SAH zonal shift during boreal summer. In particular, when above (below) normal exists, the SAH tends to shift westward (eastward). Above-normal over east europe can trigger an eastward propagating wave train along the subtropical jet stream, resembling the negative phase of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern, with positive geopotential height anomalies around the Iranian Plateau and Northeast Asia and negative anomalies around East Europe and the Tibetan Plateau, which could lead to a westward shift in the SAH. Our model experiments confirm that anomalous around east europe can exert pronounced impacts on the zonal shift in the SAH by inducing an eastward propagating atmospheric wave train.

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Subseasonal intensity variation of the South Asian high in relationship to diabatic heating: observation and CMIP5 models

Cited by 16 publications

References 73 publications

Evaluation of the capability of global climate models in reproducing the temporal clustering in heavy precipitation over Europe

Evaluation of the capability of global climate models in reproducing the temporal clustering in heavy precipitation over Europe

Influence of the South Asian high‐intensity variability on the persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves in Asian monsoon regions

Potential impact of atmospheric heating over East Europe on the zonal shift in the South Asian high: the role of the Silk Road teleconnection

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