Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis

Smith, Stuart; Smith, V. Kerry

doi:10.1080/00036848608537445

Cited by 118 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…That is, the actual victory adds little or no increment to earnings above what is already provided by the nomination (but see Ginsburgh, 2003;Nelson et al, 2001). In addition, the exact impact of the awards is not stable over time, but rather changes from decade to decade (Smith & Smith, 1986). A final complication is that movie awards in the major categories are more strongly associated with total gross earnings than with first weekend earnings (Simonton, 2005a).…”

Section: The Criteria Intercorrelationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As noted earlier, the concept of "star" is defined in many different ways in the research, and so it should come as no surprise that the results are not consistent. Some studies indicate that the presence of stars has a positive impact on box office success (e.g., Canterbery & Marvasti, 2001;Litman & Kohl, 1989;Sochay, 1994;Wallace, Seigerman, & Holbrook, 1993;Sawhney & Eliasberg, 1996;Simonoff & Sparrow, 2000), other studies find that stars have no effect (e.g., Delmestri, Montanari, & Usai, 2005;De Vany & Walls, 1999;Litman, 1983;Litman & Ahn, 1998;Prag & Casavant, 1994;Smith & Smith, 1986), and a few even find a negative effect (Chang & Ki, 2005;Simonet, 1980). What is known for sure is that star power is a very unreliable predictor of financial performance.…”

Section: Personnelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the first place, the sampled films will often span non-equivalent and even non-overlapping periods of film history. Because of historical trends in the structure of the film industry, studies can obtain contradictory results even when the investigations are conducted by the same researcher using the same methods (e.g., Litman, 1983;Litman & Ahn, 1998;Litman & Kohl, 1989; see also Smith & Smith, 1986). Furthermore, the samples will differ on whether they include non-English-language films, documentaries, and animations-cinematic products that may have dissimilar success determinants (Simonton, 2007b).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Simonton

2009

Psychology and Marketing

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The author reviewed the empirical research on the factors underlying the success of feature-length narrative films. After specifying some methodological caveats, the review examined the three main criteria by which a film's success can be evaluated: critical evaluations (both early and post-theatrical run), financial performance (including first weekend and gross), and movie awards (including dramatic, visual, technical, and music categories). To what extent do these criteria represent distinct aesthetic and economic assessments? The review then turned to the various predictors of these success criteria. How is success connected with the film's production and distribution characteristics? To what extent do the predictors converge and diverge across alternative criteria? The article then closes with a discussion of some psychological issues raised by the reviewed findings.

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Section: The Criteria Intercorrelationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Personnelmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Simonton

2009

Psychology and Marketing

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“…Post the awards they found the value of a best actor award won to be $8.3 million and the value of a best picture award to be $27 million. Smith and Smith (1986) stated that the power of the Academy Award variable was not constant and could change over time and in fact could have a positive or negative effect on the financial results of a film depending on the time period. One may conclude from the research above that an Academy Award nomination or won would have an impact on the box office revenue of a film.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other authors have contributed extensions to the landmark research presented above. Smith and Smith (1986) analysed a sample of films produced from the 1950's to the 1970's. They found that the total number of awards a film received influenced the revenue of a film.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited

Pangarker

Smit

2013

SAJBM

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The film industry is a significant player in the global economy. It calls for significant up-front investments with the result that analysts, studios and investors alike are interested in predicting box office success as part of financial risk management.This study utilises global box office revenue in assessing the effects of eight explanatory variables, identified from previous studies, in the explanation of revenue. Nearly three decades after the seminal study the extension of the original methodology to global rather than USA data, still confirms production cost, releases by major studios, award nominations and sequels to successful films as the key drivers of global box office revenue. The evidence further suggests that in the modern global context, the film genre, the release date around holidays and positive critical reviews play a less significant role than in the original investigation.

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Star power as quality signal or marketing effect? A path analysis on China's motion‐picture industry

Kang

Peng

2023

Int. J Fin Econ

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This study investigates the relationship between star power, artistic excellence, and the commercial success of Chinese movies from 2009 to 2018 based on a two‐path structural model. Artistic excellence was measured based on industry recognition; more specifically, the winners of seven major movie awards in the greater China region, which reflect the critical and popular evaluations of reviewers and consumers. The commercial success was measured by box office performance and the level of buzz among the audience. While the paths of artistic excellence and commercial movie success are essentially separable, as well as conceptually and empirically distinct, movie star power may influence both. Our findings indicate that star power had negative signal effects on critical and popular evaluation as well as industry recognition, but positive marketing effects on critical and popular buzz as well as box office performance. Indeed, star power has indirect positive effects that can outweigh its negative effects. Thus, star power is the key to success in these two seemingly unrelated paths in China. Moreover, these findings have several implications for international investors, producers, actors, and directors who are participating in the Chinese motion picture industry.

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Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis

Cited by 118 publications

References 4 publications

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited

Star power as quality signal or marketing effect? A path analysis on China's motion‐picture industry

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