Suitable Area of Invasive Species Alexandrium under Climate Change Scenarios in China Sea Areas

Abstract

Alien invasive algae along with ship ballast water have posed a serious threat to China's marine ecological security. A clear understanding of the geographical distribution of invasive species and their response to climate change can provide a scientific basis for their prevention and control. In this study, combined with environmental variables and distribution data, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and change trend of Alexandrium in the four major sea areas of China currently, 2040s (2040-2050) and 2090s (2090-2100), reveal the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution, analyze the migration trends of centroids the highly suitable area, and clarify the key control sea areas. The results showed that: 1) The AUC values of all models were significantly higher than random models, and the Kappa statistics of all models were higher than "general", demonstrated that the prediction results were available.2) The most important environmental variable affecting the geographical distribution of Alexandrium was the Temperature. Range (bio24), and its suitable range was 23.43-31.52ºC. 2) At present, in the corresponding sea areas of Nantong,

Suitable Area of Invasive Species <i>Nitzschiella closterium</i> under Climate Change Scenarios in China Sea Areas

“…Many scholars have carried out studies on the habitat areas of invasive plants. For example, RU et al explored the distribution pattern of the invasive plant Cryptomonas sp [4]; RU et al explored the dispersal risk of the invasive alga Alexandrium [3]; Chen et al [28] predicted the distribution area for the invasive plant Tithonia diversifolia. However, the long-distance transfer of ballast water and sediment allows aquatic organisms to spread across natural biogeographic barriers, especially algal plants.…”

“…The invasion of marine organisms has posed a severe threat to the marine environment and ecological security, which has been of worldwide concern [1]. Ships' ballast water and its sediments are global transfer vectors for marine organisms, including harmful marine organisms and pathogens [2][3][4]. This mechanism allows marine organisms to cross geographical barriers in ecosystems and thousands of species are transported through ballast water every day, of which more than 100 are considered potentially harmful alien species [5][6][7].…”

“…This mechanism allows marine organisms to cross geographical barriers in ecosystems and thousands of species are transported through ballast water every day, of which more than 100 are considered potentially harmful alien species [5][6][7]. In new environmental conditions, exotic species will increase and become dominant, which may lead to periodic invasion catastrophes [3]. Since the 1990s, China has been concerned about and studied the invasion of species carried by ballast water.…”

Potential Distribution Areas Prediction of Endangered Species - <i>Heritiera littoralis</i> Based on MaxEnt Modeling in China

“…The Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was initially derived from information science, and was first proposed by Jaynes in 1957 [24]. Subsequently, it has been widely adopted and is popular in several fields, including information classification, language processing, and species geographical distribution [25][26][27][28].…”

Climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the global cultivation of Panicum milliaceum

“…Commonly used theoretical evaluation metrics for species distribution models include overall accuracy, sensitivity, speci city, AUC values, TSS values, and kappa statistics. Different metrics have different evaluation methods and criteria, among which AUC, TSS and Kappa are more widely used(Haoxiang et al, 2023;Lan et al, 2023). Therefore, to improve the credibility of the validation index, three evaluation methods of AUC value, TSS value and Kappa statistic were selected to evaluate the model accuracy in this study.…”