Summary Report of the Workshop on the Interactions of Climate and Energy

Abstract

The joint Industry/DOE Workshop on the Interactions of Climate and Energy was designed to bring the providers of climate information and services together with users and representatives of the oil, gas, coal, and electric utility sectors of the U.S. energy industry. Primary discussion topics included current uses of climate data, the perceived impacts of climatic anomalies on the energy sector, ways to improve the uses of climate data, and recommendations for future research by the climate community. This opportunity for such interaction generated a universal agreement among the participants that more frequent exchanges between the providers and users of climate information be planned and that better communication between the providers and users of climate data and services be established. The workshop proceedings, which is being published by the Department of Energy, presents studies on the application of existing data to the diagnosis of the climatic component in energy supply and demand and the short-term prediction of regional scale energy requirements. Staff members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climate Data Center (NCDC) and Climate Analysis Center (CAC) review the currently available climate data and services. Four panel reports identify and enumerate the impacts of climate on each of the segments of the energy industry and offer recommendations for improvements, further research, and, in some cases, concepts for practical demonstrations of immediate potential value to the pertinent energy sector. The panel findings and the presentations of the invited speakers contain several common themes: the need for improved data formats, the significant potential benefits of increased lead time for the seasonal climate forecast, and the necessity for improved accuracy in the forecasts of monthly and seasonal means and extremes of temperature and precipitation. Workshop participants fully recognized the difficulty of making “real” progress on some of these commonly stated objectives; however, they also recognized that the benefits of striving to achieve these goals may, indeed, be sufficiently great to justify the quest for progress through focused research efforts.

Diagnostic Verification of the Climate Prediction Center Long-Lead Outlooks, 1995–98

“…Forecasts of future weather conditions at long leads (months into the future) have the potential to provide very substantial economic value, even if the predictands are averages of meteorological quantities over months or seasons. Prominent among areas where decision making could be improved through use of such forecasts are energy (Knox et al 1985); agribusiness (Mjelde et al 1998); hydrology (Kim and Palmer 1997); and also the financial services industry, through the new financial instruments known as ''weather derivatives'' (Dischel 1998). However, in order for decision makers to realize full (or even positive) benefit from forecasts, a reasonably comprehensive understanding of the quality attributes of those forecasts is necessary (Katz and Murphy 1997).…”

Applied climatology

“…Weischet (1985) has analysed the climatic constraints on the development of the southernmost tip of South America and show how the cool temperatures and persistent winds mean that conditions for permanent cultivation only become optimal north of 42° S. Knox (1985) summarizes a recent US workshop on the interactions of climate and energy, while at the level of an individual house, Clark (1985) presents a revealing account of the impact of a 'do-it-yourself insulation scheme on electricity demand. The serious consequences of any future prolonged drought on water supply in the southwest USA, arising from the large population increases in the area since 1930, are highlighted by Diaz et al (1985).…”

Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

“…Importantly, the three tools may not lead to a unanimous purchasing decision. For example, if weather has been mild for a year or more and a surplus supply of natural gas exists, then this factor may make for a low daily fluctuating price (Knox et al, 1985). This circumstance indicates that the heating plant may save money by riding the Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision A decision tree that incorporated two different climate forecasts and natural gas supply information was developed to enhance decision-making efforts related to natural gas purchases.…”