SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

Cole, Wesley; Frew, Bethany; Gagnon, Pieter; Richards, James; Sun, Yiyang; Margolis, Robert; Woodhouse, Michael

doi:10.2172/1392206

Cited by 29 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The 2017 DOE SunShot Initiative 2030 study envisions reducing the LCOE of solar PV electricity by 50% to $3/MWh for utility-scale systems between 2017 and 2030 [63]. An analysis of the impact of achieving the Sunshot 2030 goal estimates that PV might provide 17% of U.S. electricity in 2030 and 33% in 2050 [64].…”

Section: Three Changes In Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both the Wind Vision and the SunShot 2030 Initiative recognize that achieving such significant growth in variable renewable energy generation requires investments in new transmission infrastructure and the existence of sufficient dispatchable generation or energy storage capacity to accommodate variability in wind and solar generation on many time frames. For example, the addition of low-cost storage (~$130/kWh by 2030) might boost PV to 55% of U.S. electricity in 2050 [64]. Low-cost storage (e.g., batteries) is also required to reduce curtailment in power from variable generation sources when they temporarily provide more power than is demanded.…”

Section: Three Changes In Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review of the United States energy system in transition

Saundry

2019

Energ Sustain Soc

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This review article provides a synthesis of the most significant transitions taking place in the energy systems of the USA in 2018. These include the leveling off of the total consumption of primary energy and electricity, a shift away from coal-fired electricity generation, advances in the efficiency energy conversions and end-uses, as well as the onshoring and offshoring of some energy applications. Transitions are considered with a long-term, sociotechnological perspective using data from the past 60 years, recognizing the impacts technological developments, economics, public policy, cultural preferences, and concerns about environmental impacts such as climate change. Different transitions are in different phases of development with different scales of impact, with some likely to only become significant over the next few decades.

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Section: Three Changes In Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Three Changes In Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of the United States energy system in transition

Saundry

2019

Energ Sustain Soc

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“…The ReEDS model was run for numerous scenarios associated with potential future cost reductions for PV systems, either with or without low‐cost energy storage . The scenarios incorporated policies that were current as of July 2017.…”

Section: Deployment Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The analysis reported here compares the plausible range (based on our assumptions) for deployment of photovoltaics (PV) in the USA using 2 very different models, one focused on supply of PV modules and one focused on demand for PV systems . The growth constraint in the supply‐focused model arises from the high capital investment required to expand the PV module supply chain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

Basore

Cole

2018

Progress in Photovoltaics

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We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demandfocused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in which low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GW dc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GW dc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GW dc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GW dc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.

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“…Energy yield of bifacial system [4]. The goals have been set to achieve 5 ¢/kWh, 4 ¢/kWh, and ¢/kWh for residential, commercial, and utility scale systems, respectively by 2030.…”

Section: Ebmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bifacial photovoltaic (PV) system performance modeling utilizing ray tracing

Shishavan¹

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SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

Cited by 29 publications

References 44 publications

Review of the United States energy system in transition

Review of the United States energy system in transition

Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

Bifacial photovoltaic (PV) system performance modeling utilizing ray tracing

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