Sunspots and ENSO relationship using Markov method

Hassan, Danish; Iqbal, Asif; Hassan, Syed Ahmad; Abbas, Shujaat; Ansari, Muhammad Rashid

doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2015.11.017

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also show variations that are related to the phase of the TSI (Velasco & Mendoza, 2008). A significant relation between sunspots and ENSO data has also been observed (Hassan et al, 2016).…”

Section: Total Solar Irradiancementioning

confidence: 97%

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Yndestad

Solheim

2017

New Astronomy

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The total solar irradiation (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas the non-deterministic variability can only explain the past. This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of the TSI data series from 1700 A.D. and 1000 A.D., a sunspot data series from 1611 A.D., and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum, to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability. The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that is correlated to the solar position oscillation and controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune and the solar dynamo. A possible explanation is forced oscillations between the large

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Section: Total Solar Irradiancementioning

confidence: 97%

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Yndestad

Solheim

2017

New Astronomy

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“…Brief cooling roughly coeval with the Oort Minimum occurs in the Mediterranean sites 6, 13, 21, 37, 59, AA1, and AA3 (Figures 3, 5, S2, S3, S4, and S9). The physical processes that may link solar activity, ocean cycles and climate are still very much unclear but are being actively researched (e.g., Arblaster & Meehl, 2006;Hassan et al, 2016;Kuroda & Kodera, 2005;Li & Xiao, 2018;Mehta & Lau, 1997;Nuzhdina, 2002;Roy & Haigh, 2011;Salas et al, 2016;Yan et al, 2011). Nevertheless, a large amount of empirical evidence has been published which suggests a significant solarforced component in Mediterranean palaeotemperatures.…”

Section: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Mediterranean Region

Lüning¹,

Schulte

Garcés‐Pastor

et al. 2019

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a preindustrial phase of pronounced natural climate variability with a core period from 1000 to 1200 CE. The paper presents a synthesis that integrates palaeotemperature records from the Greater Mediterranean Region encompassing the past 1,500 years based on multiproxy data from 79 published land and marine sites. MCA warming dominated the Western Mediterranean (Iberia, NW Africa) as well as the northern land areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region. MCA cooling prevailed in the Canary Current Upwelling System, southern Levant, and some sea areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean. Previous palaeoreconstructions suggest persistent positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO+) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) conditions during the MCA, while the Little Ice Age was dominated by an AMO− and NAO− regime. During the past 150 years, AMO+ conditions are typically associated with warming episodes in the Mediterranean area. A similar relationship appears to have also been established during the MCA as the majority of all Mediterranean land sites experienced warm climate conditions. In contrast, the NAO typically leads to a characteristic west‐east temperature dipole pattern in the basin, as documented for the last decades. During NAO+ conditions the Western Mediterranean is generally warm (and dry), while large parts of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean are cold. Similar trends seem to have been developed during the MCA when the NAO+ regime led to consistent warming in the Western Mediterranean, while a significant number of sites with MCA cooling existed in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean.

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“…The transient state is the expected number of steps until the chain enters a recurring class (such that X 0 = j). This approach can be used for irreducible Markov chain (Akhter et al 2019;Hassan et al 2016;Lawler 2004;Iqbal & Hassan, 2018).…”

Section: Expected Number Of Visitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

El-Nino, La-Nina and Non-Active ENSO Events Relation with Solar Activity in the Perspective of Markov Process

Akhter

Abbas

Hassan

2022

Preprint

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Past investigations have been done against the sun powered atmosphere relationship and discovered huge comprehension between them. Our goal is to comprehend the sun based atmosphere progress with the assistance of Markov chain lattices. In that association we utilized solar (CI) and climate(ENSO) dataset from 1950 to 2016. All through the period atmosphere information are conveyed into El Nino, La Nino and non-active(ENSO) occasions and discovered solid connection with related CI information. The critical solid 2-dimensional correlation supported connection between El Nino and non-active(ENSO) with related CI networks (0.9865 and 0.8358) separately. So additionally, both El Nino and non-active(ENSO) with contrasting CI shows the higher number of visits in state 3 while La Nino shows a higher number of visits in state 1. Our examination shows the Markov cycle and embraced the main request Markov chain property for CI, El-Nino, La Nina and Non-active(ENSO) boundaries. The obtained results transitional probabilities of climate events with solar activity may be helpful to understand the future variation of events chances using Markov technique.

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Sunspots and ENSO relationship using Markov method

Cited by 16 publications

References 20 publications

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

The Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Mediterranean Region

El-Nino, La-Nina and Non-Active ENSO Events Relation with Solar Activity in the Perspective of Markov Process

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