Supercentenarian and remarkable age records exhibit patterns indicative of clerical errors and pension fraud

Abstract

0The observation of individuals attaining remarkable ages, and their concentration into geographic sub-regions or 'blue zones', has generated considerable scientific interest. Proposed drivers of remarkable longevity include high vegetable intake, strong social connections, and genetic markers. Here, we reveal new predictors of remarkable longevity and 'supercentenarian' status.In the United States, supercentenarian status is predicted by the absence of vital registration. The 1 5 state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records. In Italy, which has more uniform vital registration, remarkable longevity is instead predicted by low per capita incomes and a short life expectancy. Finally, the designated 'blue zones' of Sardinia, Okinawa, and Ikaria corresponded to regions with low incomes, low literacy, high crime rate and short life expectancy relative to their national average. 2 0As such, relative poverty and short lifespan constitute unexpected predictors of centenarian and supercentenarian status, and support a primary role of fraud and error in generating remarkable human age records.

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