Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems

Abstract

Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Characterization of dengue epidemics in mainland China over the past decade

“…Apart from the influence of imported cases, weather conditions of these four provinces are also regarded as important factors in dengue outbreaks. Suitable temperature and relative humidity in the early autumn in these areas are fit for the development of vector mosquitoes, and the high density of mosquitoes is an essential condition for the outbreak of dengue [27][28][29][30][31]. Accordingly, hygiene authorities of these provinces should make efforts to control vector mosquitoes before and in the dengue epidemic season.…”

Identification of the prediction model for dengue incidence in Can Tho city, a Mekong Delta area in Vietnam

“…Previous studies provide strong evidence of the association between dengue fever and climate factors such as temperature (Chen and Hsieh, 2012;Descloux et al, 2012;Earnest et al, 2012;Gharbi et al, 2011), rainfall (Hales et al, 2002;Johanson et al, 2009) and relative humidity (Chakravarti and Kumaria, 2005;Gharbi et al, 2011). Nevertheless, dengue prediction models have varied due to their complexity, methodology and research location which can be very specific and not easily applied to different geographical areas (Racloz et al, 2012). Therefore, identification of the best prediction model may be a better base for the models developed and validated in a specific location.…”

Detecting Dengue Virus Nonstructural Protein 1 (NS1) in Urine Samples Using ELISA for the Diagnosis of Dengue Virus Infection

“…In recent years, there has been an exponential increase in the number of dengue cases worldwide. It has been speculated that such increase is associated with increased mosquito activity and range expansion, which have occurred concurrently with global warming and urbanization (3)(4)(5). About 40z of the world's population lives in areas where there is risk of DENV infection (5,6).…”

“…It has been speculated that such increase is associated with increased mosquito activity and range expansion, which have occurred concurrently with global warming and urbanization (3)(4)(5). About 40z of the world's population lives in areas where there is risk of DENV infection (5,6). Although DENV has previously not been endemic in Japan, the number of imported cases has increased from 32 cases in 2003 to 249 cases in 2013.…”