Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Regarded as a highly contagious, zoonotic disease with worldwide distribution, brucellosis is endemic in many countries and settings and is responsible for a considerable economic and health-related burden. Limited information is available on the persistence and prevalence of brucellosis in pastoral communities, due to the diffi culty in gathering information and to their mobility. However, since these communities are economically and culturally dependent on livestock, it is important to further determine the cause of persistent disease and develop possible methods for its management. The two main objectives of this paper are to review the literature, identifying various epidemiological and social factors that affect the persistence of brucellosis in pastoral ecosystems, and determine prevalence estimates within these communities. The general trend of the summarised studies indicates low-level, relatively stable transmission of brucellosis in pastoral areas, when compared to transmission in intensive and semi-intensive peri-urban production systems. A formal mathematical analysis can be undertaken using matrix models or coupled differential equations. This allows an examination of the various conditions under which the number of diseased, infected or exposed animals remains stable. The authors examined an existing mathematical differential equation model for brucellosis in Mongolia for its equilibrium conditions and found it reasonably robust, though clearly more data are needed to estimate threshold densities for brucellosis transmission in other regions of the world. However, the results indicate the importance of livestock demographic determinants for brucellosis persistence. The paper concludes that brucellosis remains largely persistent in pastoral areas of the world, despite (varying) control efforts. Plans to control brucellosis in pastoral settings should include ecological considerations, such as sustaining ecosystem services in pastoral areas. This approach would include placing limitations on livestock stocking density, land reform, improved governance and integrated social and economic development.

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