Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

Abstract

Abstract. Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation.The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes -a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in transHimalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

Isotopic composition of daily precipitation along the southern foothills of the Himalayas: impact of marine and continental sources of atmospheric moisture

“…The rivers support one of the most heavily irrigated regions in the world (Tiwari et al, 2009) and are also critical for hydropower generation, the backbone of the region's economy (Karim and Veizer, 2002;Archer et al, 2010;Jeelani et al, 2012). Abnormal precipitation brought by WD and the ISM can lead to flooding or drought, which affects regional economies.…”

The water–food–energy nexus in Pakistan: a biophysical and socio-economic challenge

“…Such re-framing is challenging because it represents a different way of engaging with the world and embracing uncertainty, ambiguity and scope-creep of dynamic, distributed "clumsy solutions" rather than pursuit of certainty and control. The capacity to re-frame also requires alternative perspectives to be held in juxtaposition to uncover insightful intersections or conflicts between them (Roe, 2012;Foran et al, 2014). In Pakistan the Vision 2025 Agenda and the Government of Pakistan's commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals could provide potential platforms that would support a broader range of perspectives than usually possible within sector-bound agencies.…”

“…Three large hydropower dams each with over 1000 MW installed capacity currently supply 80 % or more of Pakistan's hydropower of about 7000 MW (Private Power and Infrastructure Board, 2011). There are approximately 60 irrigation schemes on the Indus and its tributaries, with a total command area of about 18 million ha, making it the world's largest contiguous irrigation area (Archer et al, 2010). However, such projects face major challenges.…”

Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources

“…Of these eight zones, one is open water (the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal), while two -Central Asian deserts and the Tibetan Plateau -are sparsely populated. The three plains zones -the Lower Indus Basin, Gangetic plains and Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta -are densely populated and projected to experience rapid demographic growth in the coming decades (Archer et al, 2010;Immerzeel and Bierkens, 2012). In addition to direct precipitation assessed in the climate classification, these plains regions receive river flows from upstream areas: the Karakoram/Hindu Kush is upstream of the Lower Indus Basin, while the Himalayan arc is upstream of the Gangetic plains and Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta.…”