SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Setegn, Shimelis Gebriye; Srinivasan, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.; Dargahi, Bijan

doi:10.1002/hyp.7457

Cited by 246 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The sediment yield estimated by SWAT model for the UW (44.8 t ha −1 year −1 ) and TW (33.5 t ha −1 year −1 ) was in agreement with other studies. Setegn et al (2010) reported that sediment loads of 30-60 t ha −1 year −1 were exported from the Lake Tana watersheds while Easton et al (2010) predicted a maximum soil loss of 84 t ha −1 year −1 in the Gumara watershed. Similarly, Zimale et al (2016) reported an average sediment yield of 49 t ha −1 y −1 from the Gumara watershed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model is one of the most comprehensive models able to evaluate hydrologic processes (Gassman et al 2007). SWAT has been employed to simulate the discharge in the Ethiopian highlands (Setegn et al 2008;Setegn et al 2009;Easton et al 2010;Setegn et al 2010;Betrie et al 2011;Setegn et al 2011). Hence, the objectives of this study were (1) to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for two watersheds with and without SWC structures, (2) to study the impact of these structures on runoff and erosion processes, and (3) to provide feedback on the efficiency of the structures in reducing soil erosion in the watersheds and to advise future upscaling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of soil and water conservation structure impacts on runoff and erosion processes using SWAT model in the northern Ethiopian highlands

et al. 2017

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Purpose Land degradation due to soil erosion is a serious threat to the highlands of Ethiopia. Various soil and water conservation (SWC) strategies have been in use to tackle soil erosion. However, the effectiveness of SWC measures on runoff dynamics and sediment load in terms of their medium-and short-term effects has not been sufficiently studied. Materials and methods A study was conducted in 2011 to 2015 in the Gumara-Maksegnit watershed to study the impacts of SWC structures on runoff and soil erosion processes using the soil and water analysis tool (SWAT) model. The study was conducted in two adjacent watersheds where in one of the watersheds, SWC structures were constructed (treated watershed (TW)) in 2011, while the other watershed was a reference watershed without SWC structures (untreated watershed (UW)). For both watersheds, separate SWAT and SWAT-CUP (SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedure) projects were set up for daily runoff and sediment yield. The SWAT-CUP program was applied to optimize the parameters of the SWAT using daily observed runoff and sediment yield data. Results and discussion The runoff simulations indicated that SWAT can reproduce the hydrological regime for both watersheds. The daily runoff calibration (2011)(2012)(2013) results for the TW and UW showed good correlation between the predicted and the observed data (R 2 = 0.78 for the TW and R 2 = 0.77 for the UW). The validation (2014)(2015) results also showed good correlation with R 2 values of 0.72 and 0.70 for the TW and UW, respectively. However, sediment yield calibration and validation results showed modest correlation between the predicted and observed sediment yields with R 2 values of 0.65 and 0.69 for the TW and UW for the calibration and R 2 values of 0.55 and 0.65 for the TW and UW for the validation, respectively. Conclusions The model results indicated that SWC structures considerably reduced soil loss by as much as 25-38% in the TW. The study demonstrated that SWAT performed well for both watersheds and can be a potential instrument for upscaling and assessing the impact of SWC structures on sediment loads in the highlands of Ethiopia.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of soil and water conservation structure impacts on runoff and erosion processes using SWAT model in the northern Ethiopian highlands

et al. 2017

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“…This is a model of water distribution to be coupled to a GIS interface; it considers the spatial variability of physical characteristics within a river basin. Several studies have applied this model to analyze the effects of land use changes on the hydrological flows in river basins (SETEGN et al, 2010;PEREIRA et al, 2014b;GALHARTE et al, 2014;SILVA et al, 2015). Nonetheless, SWAT may be unsuitable for simulations in small basins (KIM & LEE, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

INFLUENCE OF LAND USE CHANGE ON SEDIMENT YIELD: A CASE STUDY OF THE SUB-MIDDLE OF THE SÃO Francisco River Basin

Silva

Souza

2016

Eng. Agríc.

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ABTSRACT: Erosion risk mapping and assessment are important for planning of natural resource management tool. The objective of this study was to simulate different scenarios of land use in the Sub-Middle of the São Francisco River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) model to analyze the effects of changes in sediment yield, making comparisons with the present land use classification. The scenario analysis was (i) vegetation type characteristic of the semiarid region, (ii) growing corn and (iii) bare soil. For calibration procedure, the first three years of time series from 1993 to 1994 were validated using data from 1995 to 2004. The SWAT model employs the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) to compute soil erosion data. The results of simulations for different land uses allowed the identification of areas with a high potential for erosion by water. The major impact produced by sediment inflow was in the bare soil scenario, corresponding to an increase of 93.7% over the current land use. The landscape management in river basins using SWAT model can help identify areas particularly susceptible to erosion process.

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“…Recent studies with focus on the hydrology of the Gilgel Abbay catchment are reported by Abdo et al (2009), Setegn et al (2010 and Uhlenbrook et al (2010). Abdo et al (2009) showed that climate change may affect the hydrological regime of the Gilgel Abbay catchment with a lower rainfall amount prospected for the year 2080.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Abdo et al (2009) showed that climate change may affect the hydrological regime of the Gilgel Abbay catchment with a lower rainfall amount prospected for the year 2080. In Setegn et al (2010) attention is on uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al, 1998) but issues of land cover change are ignored. In Uhlenbrook et al (2010) attention is on hydrologic modeling of Koga catchment and the Gilgel Abbay catchment that was partitioned in the Upper Gilgel Abbay that is gauged and the lower part that is ungauged.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia

Rientjes

Haile

Kebede

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

170

140

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Abstract. In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land.By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973-2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982-2000 and 2001-2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973-2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

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SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 246 publications

References 24 publications

Prediction of soil and water conservation structure impacts on runoff and erosion processes using SWAT model in the northern Ethiopian highlands

Prediction of soil and water conservation structure impacts on runoff and erosion processes using SWAT model in the northern Ethiopian highlands

INFLUENCE OF LAND USE CHANGE ON SEDIMENT YIELD: A CASE STUDY OF THE SUB-MIDDLE OF THE SÃO Francisco River Basin

Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia

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