Synergistic effects of fishing-induced demographic changes and climate variation on fish population dynamics

Hidalgo, Manuel; Rouyer, Tristan; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Massutí, Enric; Moranta, Joan; Guijarro, Beatríz; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

doi:10.3354/meps09077

Cited by 104 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Instead, these slow oscillations likely reflected a "cohort resonant" effect, defined as a low-frequency variability produced by a combination of age-structured interactions and stochastic (climate-driven) recruitment (Bjørnstad et al 2004;Hidalgo et al 2011). In Windemere, cohort resonance of perch and pike is suggested by the 13-15-year periodicity which arguably represents a sub-harmonic of the 7-8-year oscillation of summer temperatures.…”

Section: -15-year Oscillation: Cohort Resonance In Perch and Pikementioning

confidence: 99%

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Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

et al. 2016

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; Vollestad, L. Asbjorn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Ghil, Michael. 2016. Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics. Oecologia, 181 (2). 519-532. 10.1007/s00442-016-3575-8 Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics AbstractEvaluating the effects of climate variation on ecosystems is of paramount importance for our ability to forecast and mitigate the consequences of global change. However, the ways in which complex food webs respond to climate variations remain poorly understood. Here, we use long-term time series to investigate the effects of temperature variation on the intraguild-predation (IGP) system of Windermere (UK), a lake where pike (Esox lucius, top predator) feed on small-sized perch (Perca fluviatilis) but compete with large-sized perch for the same food sources. Spectral analyses of time series reveal that pike recruitment dynamics are temperature-controlled. In 1976, expansion of a perch pathogen into the lake severely impacted large perch and favoured pike as the IGP-dominant species. This pathogeninduced regime shift to a pike-dominated IGP apparently triggered a temperature-controlled trophic cascade passing through pike down to dissolved nutrients. In simple food chains, warming is predicted to strengthen top-down control by accelerating metabolic rates in ectothermic consumers, while pathogens of top consumers are predicted to dampen this top-down control. In contrast, the local IGP structure in Windermere made warming and pathogens synergistic in their top-down effects on ecosystem functioning. More generally, our results point to top predators as major mediators of community response to global change, and show that size-selective agents (e.g., pathogens, fishers or hunters) may change the topological architecture of food-webs and alter whole-ecosystem sensitivity to climate variation.

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Section: -15-year Oscillation: Cohort Resonance In Perch and Pikementioning

confidence: 99%

“…S1). Interestingly, the pathogen truncated perch age and size structure more severely in the north than in the south basin ( suppress cohort resonant effects just as fisheries do (Hidalgo et al 2011;Botsford et al 2014). …”

Section: -15-year Oscillation: Cohort Resonance In Perch and Pikementioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

et al. 2016

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“…Hildalgo et al (2011) demonstrated that stock depletion can enhance the impact of environmental forcing on fish populations, as both the catch per unit effort of European hake Merluccius merluccius and its correlation with environmental variables increased during periods of low population size. A similar result is plausible with Southern Flounder and would result in increased risk of decline during periods (or regions) with unfavorable environmental conditions even if the declines were driven by fishing exploitation rather than environmental forcing.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…To properly interpret these data, it is appropriate to consider the relative abundance of a species during the period from which the survey data used to build the model are collected (Jensen et al 2005). This seems less common in practice as this information is often unknown, but recent research has demonstrated that speciesenvironment relationships can change with abundance and that abundance may be more closely linked to environmental conditions at low population sizes (Hildalgo et al 2011).…”

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Two‐Stage Boosted Regression Tree Model to Characterize Southern Flounder Distribution in Texas Estuaries at Varying Population Sizes

Froeschke

2016

Mar Coast Fish

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Linking trends in fish population abundance to environmental characteristics is often difficult because fish use a variety of habitats throughout their ontogeny and may exhibit large interannual fluctuations in abundance. We developed a two‐stage boosted regression tree model to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of Southern Flounder Paralichthys lethostigma abundance and distribution in Texas estuaries. We used a 36‐year fishery‐independent data set (1977–2012) to correlate distribution with environmental conditions and seasonal or long‐term changes in abundance. Adult Southern Flounder were sampled with gill nets using a random‐stratified design. Predictions of abundance were made to grids of environmental data to identify “hot spots” as well as seasonal or decadal shifts in distribution. Models were fit using cross validation, and variance was estimated using nonparametric bootstrapping. Depth, temperature, distance to a tidal inlet, and salinity were the primary environmental determinants of Southern Flounder distribution and abundance. Because distribution and response to environmental conditions can depend on population abundance, we also developed a standardized index of annual abundance using the same two‐stage boosted regression tree model. The index identifies a long‐term decline in abundance punctuated by recent recovery (possibly in response to management actions). Mapped results identify a coastwide decline in abundance between 1980–1984 and 2005–2009 but the magnitude varied substantially, suggesting disproportionate changes in abundance across the study area. Received April 10, 2015; accepted July 28, 2015

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Fishing‐induced changes in adult length are mediated by skipped‐spawning

Wang

Chen

Hsu

et al. 2017

Ecological Applications

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Elucidating fishing effects on fish population dynamics is a critical step toward sustainable fisheries management. Despite previous studies that have suggested age or size truncation in exploited fish populations, other aspects of fishing effects on population demography, e.g., via altering life histories and density, have received less attention. Here, we investigated the fishing effects altering adult demography via shifting reproductive trade-offs in the iconic, overexploited, Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis. We found that, contrary to our expectation, mean lengths of catch increased over time in longline fisheries. On the other hand, mean catch lengths for purse seine fisheries did not show such increasing trends. We hypothesized that the size-dependent energetic cost of the spawning migration and elevated fishing mortality on the spawning grounds potentially drive size-dependent skipped spawning for adult tuna, mediating the observed changes in the catch lengths. Using eco-genetic individual-based modeling, we demonstrated that fishing-induced evolution of skipped spawning and size truncation interacted to shape the observed temporal changes in mean catch lengths for tuna. Skipped spawning of the small adults led to increased mean catch lengths for the longline fisheries, while truncation of small adults by the purse seines could offset such a pattern. Our results highlight the eco-evolutionary dynamics of fishing effects on population demography and caution against using demographic traits as a basis for fisheries management of the Pacific bluefin tuna as well as other migratory species.

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Synergistic effects of fishing-induced demographic changes and climate variation on fish population dynamics

Cited by 104 publications

References 45 publications

Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics

Two‐Stage Boosted Regression Tree Model to Characterize Southern Flounder Distribution in Texas Estuaries at Varying Population Sizes

Fishing‐induced changes in adult length are mediated by skipped‐spawning

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