System enquiry using system dynamics

Wolstenholme, Eric

doi:10.1080/00207728608926787

Cited by 47 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Along with techniques developed in system dynamics, many tools and protocols for group model-building are now available, including causal loop diagrams, policy structure diagrams, hexagon modeling, interactive computer mapping, and various problem structuring and soft systems methods (see e.g. Checkland 1981, Eden, Jones & Sims 1983, Lane 1993, Morecroft 1982, Morecroft and Sterman 1994, Reagan-Cirincione et al 1991, Richmond 1987, Rosenhead 1989, and Wolstenholme 1990.…”

Section: Pitfalls Of Virtual Worlds: Virtual Worlds Are Effective Whementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is true that systems thinking techniques, including system dynamics and qualitative methods such as soft systems analysis, can enhance our intuition about complex situations, just as studying physics can improve our intuition about the natural world. 14 As Wolstenholme (1990) argues, qualitative systems tools should be made widely available so that D-4428 those with limited mathematical background can benefit from them. I am a strong advocate for the introduction of system dynamics and related methods at all levels of the educational system.…”

Section: Why Simulation Is Essentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Learning in and about complex systems

Sterman¹

1994

System Dynamics Review

918

238

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Change is accelerating, and the complexity of the systems in which we live is growing.Increasingly change is the result of humanity itself. As complexity grows so do the unanticipated side effects of human action, further increasing complexity in a vicious cycle.Many scholars call for the development of 'systems thinking' to improve our ability to manage wisely. But how do people learn in and about complex dynamic systems? Learning is a feedback process in which our decisions alter the real world, we receive information feedback about the world, and using the new information we revise the decisions we make and the mental models that motivate those decisions. Unfortunately, in the world of social action various impediments slow or prevent these learning feedbacks from functioning, allowing erroneous and harmful behaviors and beliefs to persist. The barriers to learning include the dynamic complexity of the systems themselves, inadequate and ambiguous outcome feedback, systematic 'misperceptions of feedback' where our cognitive maps omit important feedback processes, delays, stocks and flows, and nonlinearities that characterize complex systems, inability to simulate mentally the dynamics of our cognitive maps, poor interpersonal and organizational inquiry skills, and poor scientific reasoning skills. To be successful methods to enhance learning about complex systems must address all these impediments. Effective methods for learning in and about complex dynamic systems must include (1) tools to elicit participant knowledge, articulate and reframe perceptions, and create maps of the feedback structure of a problem from those perceptions; (2) simulation tools and management flight simulators to assess the dynamics of those maps and test new policies; and (3) methods to improve scientific reasoning skills, strengthen group process and overcome defensive routines for individuals and teams. D-4428

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Section: Pitfalls Of Virtual Worlds: Virtual Worlds Are Effective Whementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Why Simulation Is Essentialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning in and about complex systems

Sterman¹

1994

System Dynamics Review

918

238

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“…If SD models are quantified and then simulated, they are able to track the future trajectory of interdependent variables, incorporating the dynamics of feedback and time delays at work within the system. However, an earlier stage of any model-building is to qualitatively represent the key influences and feedback loops in the system under study, a technique known as causal mapping (Wolstenholme 1990). Expert knowledge is especially helpful in helping establish the multiple causal connections existing in a system, particularly when building off collective expert understandings.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Rees¹,

Stephenson

Hopkins

et al. 2016

Transportation

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Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.

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“…In the broadest sense, sustainability will be affected by the relationship between the myriad existing sub-organisations, i.e. by how well they complement each other and how effectively their respective evolutionary paths are coordinated (Wolstenholme 1990). Research on the role of community organisations in Minangkabau communities in Sumatra, led Otsuka (1998) to conclude that 'no matter how strong the traditional top-down social and administrative hierarchies were, the norms associated with customary authority and followed by the community, mitigated against the corruption or malpractice of leaders'.…”

Section: Social Organisationsmentioning

confidence: 99%