Taking Advantage of the Improved Availability of Census Data: A First Look at the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4

Doxsey-Whitfield, Erin; MacManus, Kytt; Adamo, Susana B.; Pistolesi, Linda; Squires, John R.; Borkovska, Olena; Baptista, Sandra

doi:10.1080/23754931.2015.1014272

Cited by 397 publications

(302 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The percentage of land area with statistically significant change (at 95 % confidence level) is reported. The affected population is calculated using the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) data from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) (Doxsey-Whitfield et al, 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Floods and droughts, the natural disasters with the highest cost in human lives (Dilley et al, 2005;IFRC, 2002), are projected to become more intense under anthropogenic global warming and climate change (Dai, 2011;Field, 2012;Stocker et al, 2013). Observational records as well as global climate model (GCM) simulations both show that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases at a rate of approximately 7 % per K of increase in global mean temperature (Allen and Ingram, 2002;Held and Soden, 2006;Wentz et al, 2007), as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation conditional to stable relative humidity (Held and Soden, 2006;Pall et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

120

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Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multimodel mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4 • warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2 • warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Asadieh

Krakauer

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

120

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“…Road transportation uses the EDGAR v4.3 road transportation grid, which is significantly improved over previous versions (EC-JRC/PBL, 2016), but was only available for 2010, so this is used for all years. When the primary proxy for a specific country/region, sector, and year combination is not available, CEDS uses gridded population from Gridded Population of the World (GPW) (Doxsey-Whitfield et al, 2015) and HYDE as backup proxy. Whenever available, proxy data are from annual gridded data; however, proxy grids for sectors other than RCO (residential, commercial, other) and waste are held constant before 1970 and after 2008.…”

Section: Non-combustion Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We present a new data set of annual historical anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4 , NH 3 , NO x , SO 2 , NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon -BC, and organic carbon -OC), and CO 2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low-and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

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“…Spatial population density estimates for Madagascar for the year 2010 were derived from the GPWv4 dataset, released by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University (Doxsey-Whitfield et al, 2015). We use 5-yearly country-level human population growth estimates from the United Nations to estimate the total population of Madagascar from 1980 to 2007, based on the latest population census conducted in 1993.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007

Giorgi

Kreppel

Diggle

et al. 2016

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

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Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 meters in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modelling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.

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Taking Advantage of the Improved Availability of Census Data: A First Look at the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4

Cited by 397 publications

References 28 publications

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007

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