Tea Leaves and Southern Politics: Explaining Tea Party Support in the Region*

Abstract

Objectives Our research assesses the distinctiveness of Tea Party adherents among mobilized Republicans in the South. Methods The data come from an interactive voice response (IVR) survey of households containing at least one Republican primary voter across nine southern states conducted approximately one month before the 2012 presidential election. We analyze the data using multivariate logistic regression. Results Unlike other scholarship, we find no evidence that racial animosity drives the movement, but we do find a strong relationship between evangelicalism and Tea Party support. We also find Tea Party adherents are older, more likely to be men, less wealthy, more ideologically conservative, and more partisan than their fellow Republicans. Conclusions Tea Party supporters in the South are likely to have a significant impact on the future of the Republican Party—both in the South, and nationally. The fact that our profile of southern Tea Party supporters does not include growing segments of the electorate does not bode well for the future development of the GOP.

Growing Tea With Subnational Roots: Tea Party Affiliation, Factionalism, and GOP Politics in State Legislatures

“…This finding appears at first glance to run against our initial expectations which would predict that less racially diverse districts would be more likely to elect Tea Party legislators. However, some previous research has found null effects for racial animosity as a driver of Tea Party support among voters (Hood et al, 2015). In addition, other recent work has shown that contrary to our expectations, racial threat response and resentment may result from more diverse rather than homogeneously white populations, and that these may be precisely the types of constituencies more likely to produce Tea Party-affiliated representatives (e.g., Arceneaux & Nicholson, 2012;Parker & Barreto, 2014;Skocpol & Williamson, 2012).…”

“…Differences within the party pertaining to characteristics like political experience (a euphemism for "establishment") and sentiments on issues of diversity have factionalized Republican-controlled legislatures. At the height of the Tea Party movement, some argued that mainstream Republicans were accountable to the Tea Party and not the other way around (Hood et al, 2015), indicating a real struggle to define (or redefine) Republican ideals. Competing theories aim to explain the true origins and motivations of the movement, but most agree that Tea Party and affiliated legislative caucuses have caused a critical fissure within the Republican Party that threatens its long-term viability (Blum, 2020;Coll, 2013).…”

“…This paper leverages this variation to better explain the factors that lead legislators to affiliation with the Tea Party. While previous research has examined the Tea Party's grassroots origin and organizational structure (Deckman, 2016;Skocpol & Williamson, 2012), the movement's membership and support (Hood et al, 2015;Maxwell & Parent, 2012), and its caucus membership and behavior in Congress (Blum, 2020;Gervais & Morris, 2012;Ragusa & Gaspar, 2016) little work has specifically focused on legislator characteristics (individual, district, and chamber factors), especially at the state level where the bulk of Tea Party-aligned lawmakers reside.…”

Partisan Dynamics in Presidential Primaries and Campaign Divisiveness

“…There are claims that the homogeneity of the Republican Party began breaking down at the end of the Bush administration with the rise of the Tea Party and internal divisions between business-oriented elites and lower income white-collar workers that helped elect Donald Trump over the objections of party leaders (Gervais & Morris, 2012;Hood, Kidd, & Morris, 2015;Steger, 2007Steger, , 2015. Therefore, I also test whether Republican voters have become less supportive of the front-runner in recent elections, and whether changes in the relationship between party and voter support has changed over time.…”

Historical Mob Violence and the 2016 Presidential Election

“… 3. Research by Hood, Kidd, and Morris (2015) is unique in finding no connection between Tea Party support and racial animus. …”