In this paper, we introduce a recently developed methodology for assessing the assumption of causal homogeneity in a time series cross-section Granger framework. Following a description of the procedure and the analytical contexts for which it is appropriate, we implement this new approach to examine the transformation of the post-World War II party system in the South. Specifically, we analyze the causal relationship between black mobilization and GOP growth in the region. We find that black mobilization Granger caused Republican growth throughout the South, whereas Republican growth Granger caused black mobilization only in the deep South. We discuss the substantive significance of our results and conclude with guidelines for the appropriate use of this procedure and suggestions for future extensions of the method.

Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Copyright (c) 2007 Southwestern Social Science Association.

For years voters and political pundits have grumbled about the lack of real choice between Republicans and Democrats. Scholars have examined party behavior and suggested reasons for concern. Determining whether there is a real ideological and policy difference between U.S. political parties, and the nature of that difference, is important for political science and for democratic politics generally. Ultimately, democracy is about choices, and where choices are few, democracy is degraded. One way to examine the choices that political parties offer voters is by assessing their political platforms. Even in an era of candidate-centric politics, political party platforms spell out the general programs offered by the parties, and the platforms are heavily influenced by the policy positions of the candidates themselves. In addition, the political platform is the one document that spells out the entire program of the party. Individual candidate speeches capture only snippets (at best) of the policy choices offered to voters. Recent innovations in computerized content analysis make it possible to analyze large bodies of text such as party platforms in a systematic way by treating words as data, then analyzing them statistically.

Over the last half-century, the South has undergone a radical transformation. One aspect of this transformation, the growth of the Republican Party, has produced a viable and competitive twoparty system in the region. Contrary to other studies examining this phenomenon, this study offers an explicitly political explanation—the theory of relative advantage—for the growth of Southern Republicanism. Using a pooled time series methodology to simultaneously examine the implications of this theory, as well as the effect of economic and demographic factors traditionally associated with GOP growth, it is shown that the observed pattern mirrors the expectations of relative advantage theory. In contrast to the existing literature, little support was found for economic or demographic explanations of Republican growth.

Objectives Our research assesses the distinctiveness of Tea Party adherents among mobilized Republicans in the South. Methods The data come from an interactive voice response (IVR) survey of households containing at least one Republican primary voter across nine southern states conducted approximately one month before the 2012 presidential election. We analyze the data using multivariate logistic regression. Results Unlike other scholarship, we find no evidence that racial animosity drives the movement, but we do find a strong relationship between evangelicalism and Tea Party support. We also find Tea Party adherents are older, more likely to be men, less wealthy, more ideologically conservative, and more partisan than their fellow Republicans. Conclusions Tea Party supporters in the South are likely to have a significant impact on the future of the Republican Party—both in the South, and nationally. The fact that our profile of southern Tea Party supporters does not include growing segments of the electorate does not bode well for the future development of the GOP.