Technoeconomic and Policy Drivers of Project Performance for Bioenergy Alternatives Using Biomass from Beetle-Killed Trees

Abstract

Abstract:As a result of widespread mortality from beetle infestation in the forests of the western United States, there are substantial stocks of biomass suitable as a feedstock for energy production. This study explored the financial viability of four production pathway scenarios for the conversion of beetle-killed pine to bioenergy and bioproducts in the Rocky Mountains. Monte Carlo simulation using data obtained from planned and existing projects was used to account for uncertainty in key technoeconomic variables and to provide distributions of project net present value (NPV), as well as for sensitivity analysis of key economic and production variables. Over a 20-year project period, results for base case scenarios reveal mean NPV ranging from a low of −$8.3 million for electric power production to a high of $76.0 million for liquid biofuel with a biochar co-product. However, under simulation, all scenarios had conditions resulting in both positive and negative NPV. NPV ranged from −$74.5 million to $51.4 million for electric power, and from −$21.6 million to $246.3 million for liquid biofuels. The potential effects of economic trends and public policies that aim to promote renewable energy and biomass utilization are discussed for each production pathway. Because the factors that most strongly affect financial viability differ across projects, the likely effects of particular types of policies are also shown to vary substantially.

An Analysis on Barriers to Biomass and Bioenergy Development in Rural China Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cognitive Map

“…In addition, biomass energy consumption had positive impacts on economic growth [10], and the direct socio-economic benefits of biomass use is a significant driver in the impletion of biomass projects [11]. What is more, biomass, such as forest residuals, straw, and agricultural crop, is commonly classified as a natural resource and the utilization of this biomass does not cause the extra increase of CO 2 emission, which effectively supports the completion of emission reduction targets [4,6,7]. The use of plantation residuals showed the lowest impact on the local environment when compared with the current electricity production from natural gas [12].…”

“…Biomass resources are potentially the world's most substantial and most sustainable energy resource, providing 14% of the world's energy [4][5][6]. Biomass accounts for 46% of national renewable energy in the United States (U.S.) [7]. Notably, in the rural area of the developing countries, biomass is not the only available energy source, as it was previously portrayed, but as an energy source that has a large range of feedstock and will continue to be widely used.…”

“…That is the reason why we should construct a mathematical model to study how to reconcile the confliction between these factors. For instance, industry, policy, and forest management implications affected the financial viability of the biomass project [7]. Unfortunately, current studies are limited due to the lack of useful methods for the simple identification and description of the factors.…”

New Geospatial Approaches for Efficiently Mapping Forest Biomass Logistics at High Resolution over Large Areas

“…Table 4. Queries used to allocate the average speed to each road segment and its derived raster cells, considering the Master Address File (MAF) TIGER Feature Class Code (MTFCC) 1 .…”

“…Feedstock procurement cost is consistently cited as one of the primary drivers of project financial performance [1] and is one of the factors of production with the highest levels of uncertainty [2]. As a result, many studies have been published on this topic [3], and a wide range of methods and decision tools have been developed for supply chain optimization [4] and to help site and supply facilities [4][5][6].…”