Technological change and employment in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: Which workers are most affected?

Abstract

This article adopts a task‐based approach to analyse employment patterns in terms of skill distribution and occupations in the urban labour markets of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico during 2002–15. The results suggest that employment fell strongly for some medium‐skilled occupations, and increased slightly for both low‐skilled and high‐skilled occupations. Decomposition results suggest that the decreasing share of employment of secretaries and stenographers is fully explained by changes within industries (routinization hypothesis), whereas the decrease in machinery operation and handicraft jobs is mainly explained by changes between industries. By socio‐demographic group, technological changes negatively affected women but benefited younger workers and those with higher educational attainment.

Exploring the future impact of automation in Brazil

“…At least not from the debate about technological unemployment, which abounds in the recent academic literature and popular discourse even though automation has not reduced employment levels in the past (Arntz et al , 2016; Autor, 2015; Spencer, 2018). Still, this particular adverse effect of automation is back in the research agenda of academics (Ariza and Raymond Bara, 2018; Arntz et al , 2016; Frank et al , 2018; Frey and Osborne, 2017; Mitchell and Brynjolfsson, 2017; Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018; Spencer, 2018). Moreover, not only the academy is interested in better understanding the future of employment; international agencies, governments and consulting groups are also exploring the theme.…”

Skills and employment transitions in Brazil

“…whereas Ariza and Bara (2020) report that the employment change curve over the wage distribution is flat. Firpo and Portella (2019) suggest that age-biased technical change or skill obsolescence offset polarization trends.…”

Assessing job training effectiveness in Chile: A longitudinal approach

“…While there is extensive literature regarding these factors and the workforce in industrialized countries (Schofer & Meyer, 2005), there is not as much evidence for less‐developed countries. Such is the case in Latin American nations, where the process of higher education is recent (last 20 years) compared to European countries or the United States (40–50 years) (Chiroleu & Marquina, 2017; Didier, 2021c; Ferreyra et al, 2017), or where evidence of the effects of technological change on the workforce is scarce and new (Ariza & Raymond Bara, 2020; Didier, 2021a). The inequality in the availability of evidence entails several risks for Latin American governments on the verge of the fourth industrial revolution and its transforming influence on the organization of national economies.…”