Tek Kuşak Tek Yol Girişiminde Türkiye’nin Ticareti: Çekim Modeli Analizi

Abstract

Sustainability of foreign trade, which is one of the determinants of growth and development, is important for all economies. Therefore, owing to the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which has been implemented under the leadership of China, countries are interconnected by transportation, energy, telecommunication networks and fiber systems such as land, rail and sea. In this context, the aim of the study is to reveal the determainants of Turkey's foreign trade volume with other countries on the economic belt of this initiative by using gravity model. For this purpose, the annual data of 15 countries for 1992-2019 has been analysed by using the method of Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). As a result of, all variables were found statistically significant whereas OBOR dummy variable was found as, contraty to all expectations, negative. This makes the evaluation of the benefits provided by initiative rather ambiguous.