Temperature and precipitation long-term trends and variations in the Ili-Balkhash Basin

Guo, Lixia; Xia, Ziqiang

doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0883-3

Cited by 26 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…To conclude, evidence for the climate change impact (on the water resources of the Syr Darya River Basin) is plentiful. Over the past 85 years, temperatures have significantly increased in all parts of the basin, which probably caused glaciers in the high mountains to melt faster than before, shaping/creating more ice runoff [3,39]. Precipitation has increased in both the upper and lower parts of the basin and decreased in the middle of the basin (Figure 5c), which is in line with the results from Sorg et al [21].…”

Section: Relation Of the Climatic Factors And River Dischargessupporting

confidence: 85%

Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

et al. 2019

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Water resources are increasingly under stress in Central Asia because downstream countries are highly dependent on upstream countries. Water is essential for irrigation and is becoming scarcer due to climate change and human activities. Based on 20 hydrological stations, this study firstly analyzed the annual and seasonal spatial–temporal changes of the river discharges, precipitation, and temperature in the Syr Darya River Basin and then the possible relationships between these factors were detected. Finally, the potential reasons for the river discharge variations have been discussed. The results show that the river discharges in the upper stream of the basin had significantly risen from 1930 to 2006, mainly due to the increase in temperature (approximately 0.3 °C per decade), which accelerated the melting of glaciers, while it decreased in the middle and lower regions due to the rising irrigation. In the middle of the basin, the expansion of the construction land (128.83 km2/year) and agricultural land (66.68 km2/year) from 1992 to 2015 has significantly augmented the water consumption. The operations of reservoirs and irrigation canals significantly intercepted the river discharge from the upper streams, causing a sharp decline in the river discharges in the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya River in 1973. The outcomes obtained from this study allowed us to understand the changes in the river discharges and provided essential information for effective water resource management in the Syr Darya River Basin.

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Section: Relation Of the Climatic Factors And River Dischargessupporting

confidence: 85%

Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

et al. 2019

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“…The Mann-Kendall rank statistical test (M-K) [30,31] is employed to assess the statistical significance of a trend. As the M-K test is widely applied to test the trend [1] and detect abrupt changes [1,32] in climate and hydrology time series, the temperature series for the individuals and area-averaged value of 44 stations are also detected to abrupt change points by M-K test in this study. For the annual temperature series (1 ≤ ≤ ), a sequence statistic is calculated by…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Climate change is an important global issue among international communities and academic researchers. A large number of studies have focused on analyzing variations of temperature in different places [1][2][3]. However, research on the effects of climate change on the international river is limited, and the potential impacts of climate change on water resources will lead to significant challenges to water resource protection and management of the nations sharing the same river basin, even conflicts and wars, especially in Middle East and Africa [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Detection and Annual Extreme Temperature Analysis of the Amur River Basin

Xia

Feng

et al. 2016

Advances in Meteorology

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This paper aims to detect climate change points and compare the extreme temperature changes with the average-value changes in the Amur River basin. The daily air temperatures of 44 stations in the Amur River basin were collected from April 1, 1954, to March 31, 2013. The change points for annual mean and extreme temperature in 44 individual stations and their average were detected by the Mann-Kendall test, respectively. The annual mean temperature changed during 1980s in terms of increased mean value and relative stable standard deviation. The annual maximum temperature from 31 stations mostly located in the central and northwest basin changed significantly, and their change points occurred mainly in 1990s. For the annual minimum temperature, 32 stations mainly located in the central basin had significant changes. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the postchange point subseries of annual extreme temperature and the parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The 10/50/100-year return levels were estimated by the method of profile likelihood. For the areas in the central and Northwestern basin, the probability of occurrence of hot extremes increased, while the occurrence probability of cold extremes was decreased in the central basin under climate change.

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“…The Ili River is 1492 km long, and receives a combination of snow melt, glacial melt, and rainfall with peak flows during the growing season (June, July and August) [5,27]. The downstream region is arid (average precipitation 120 mm), whereas the mountainous upper Ili is semi-arid with a strong precipitation and temperature gradient following topography (200 mm/year in the lower valley to 800 mm/year in the highest region) [37][38][39]. As average precipitation in Xinjiang province is 165 mm/year, the Ili Valley is considered one of the most fertile areas of the arid north-west China [16,38,39].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin

Boer

Paltán

Sternberg

et al. 2021

Water

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The Ili-Balkhash basin (IBB) is considered a key region for agricultural development and international transport as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IBB is exemplary for the combined challenge of climate change and shifts in water supply and demand in transboundary Central Asian closed basins. To quantify future vulnerability of the IBB to these changes, we employ a scenario-neutral bottom-up approach with a coupled hydrological-water resource modelling set-up on the RiverWare modelling platform. This study focuses on reliability of environmental flows under historical hydro-climatic variability, future hydro-climatic change and upstream water demand development. The results suggest that the IBB is historically vulnerable to environmental shortages, and any increase in water consumption will increase frequency and intensity of shortages. Increases in precipitation and temperature improve reliability of flows downstream, along with water demand reductions upstream and downstream. Of the demand scenarios assessed, extensive water saving is most robust to climate change. However, the results emphasize the competition for water resources among up- and downstream users and between sectors in the lower Ili, underlining the importance of transboundary water management to mitigate cross-border impacts. The modelling tool and outcomes may aid decision-making under the uncertain future in the basin.

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Temperature and precipitation long-term trends and variations in the Ili-Balkhash Basin

Cited by 26 publications

References 21 publications

Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

Climate Change Detection and Annual Extreme Temperature Analysis of the Amur River Basin

Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin

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