2014
DOI: 10.1177/0022343314538275
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Temperature seasonality and violent conflict

Abstract: Current climate change research suggests that certain seasonal weather patterns will be extended and others attenuated as global temperature increases. This is important because seasonal temperature change affects both the scarcity of resources during certain times of the year and the overall mobility of people living in countries that have seasonality. Consequently, these seasonal changes have implications for the onset of violent conflict, particularly as it relates to distinguishing when, where, and how it … Show more

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Cited by 48 publications
(15 citation statements)
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“…For the temperature and precipitation data, I follow Landis [24] and use the data from NOAA's NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Monthly Means Dataset 1948-2011 (in degrees Celsius) and monthly precipitation data (mm/month) from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2.2, respectively. Following Landis [24], I aggregated these data at the country level and employ measures of temperature and precipitation shocks. A temperature/precipitation shock is a substantial (or extreme) deviation from a "normal" climate pattern, i.e., the standardized temperature/precipitation deviation (see [25]).…”
Section: Explanatory Variablesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…For the temperature and precipitation data, I follow Landis [24] and use the data from NOAA's NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Monthly Means Dataset 1948-2011 (in degrees Celsius) and monthly precipitation data (mm/month) from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2.2, respectively. Following Landis [24], I aggregated these data at the country level and employ measures of temperature and precipitation shocks. A temperature/precipitation shock is a substantial (or extreme) deviation from a "normal" climate pattern, i.e., the standardized temperature/precipitation deviation (see [25]).…”
Section: Explanatory Variablesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, countries affected by low levels of precipitation suffer from various extreme conditions, including droughts. This "can cause disruptions in economic and social systems" [24] (p. 606) and [26], especially in vulnerable societies with low adaptability measures. Specifically, as described in detail in Landis [24] (p. 608), measures of temperature and precipitation shock use the monthly deviation from a country's long-term monthly mean.…”
Section: Explanatory Variablesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…We acknowledge that climate change may alter criminal behavior indirectly outside of rising temperatures, and not through a direct effect of heat on mood and impulse control, among other factors. Increasing societal tensions and conflict, internal displacement, economic decline, and reduced agricultural output are all factors that may influence crime levels and have been shown to be altered by climate (Agnew, 2012;Dell, Jones, & Olken, 2014;Hsiang & Burke, 2014;Hsiang et al, 2013;Landis, 2014;Mares, 2010). Such factors are more prominent in developing nations that are less resilient to climate change and less likely to impact developed nations such as the United States (Mares, 2010).…”
Section: Theoretical Context Of the Link Between Climate Change And Cmentioning
confidence: 99%