Temporal synchrony of Thaumetopoea processionea egg hatch and Quercus robur budburst

Wagenhoff, Eiko; Blum, Rainer; Engel, Katharina; Veit, Holger; Delb, Horst

doi:10.1007/s10340-012-0457-7

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Analysis revealed that egg hatch generally precedes oak foliation, which accords with previous findings (Custers, 2003;Meurisse et al, 2012;Wagenhoff et al, 2013). The time of egg hatch in the study area has varied markedly over the past 130 years.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…If this were the case, T. processionea is likely to be adversely affected by climate change, which contradicts the often stated assumption that T. processionea benefits from global warming. However, freshly hatched T. processionea neonates are able to survive three weeks of starvation (Meurisse et al, 2012;Wagenhoff et al, 2013), which would be sufficient for them to mostly compensate for any possible divergence in the timing of egg hatch and budburst. Furthermore, variability in the time of egg hatch and ability to survive starvation (Wagenhoff et al, 2013) may enable T. processionea to adapt to extended asynchrony via natural selection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, freshly hatched T. processionea neonates are able to survive three weeks of starvation (Meurisse et al, 2012;Wagenhoff et al, 2013), which would be sufficient for them to mostly compensate for any possible divergence in the timing of egg hatch and budburst. Furthermore, variability in the time of egg hatch and ability to survive starvation (Wagenhoff et al, 2013) may enable T. processionea to adapt to extended asynchrony via natural selection. In this respect, high selective pressure is thought to quickly restore temporal synchrony in spring-feeding folivores (Dixon, 2003;Robinet & Roques, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Embryonic development is completed by early autumn when neonates enter diapause and hibernate in their eggs until early spring the following year. Larval eclosion occurs within a few days and generally precedes oak foliation (Meurisse et al, 2012;Wagenhoff & Veit, 2011;Wagenhoff et al, 2013). Visser & Holleman Eur.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Does the prediction of the time of egg hatch of Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) using a frost day/temperature sum model provide evidence of an increasing temporal mismatch between the time of egg hatch and that of budburst of Quercus robur due to recent global warming?

Wagenhoff¹,

Wagenhoff²,

Blum³

et al. 2014

Eur. J. Entomol.

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Abstract. Thaumetopoea processionea is a serious defoliator of oak and of medical concern whose abundance has consistently increased throughout Europe during the past two decades. This study validates a previously published frost day/temperature sum model for predicting time of egg hatch of this species using five years of recent field data from South-West Germany. This model proved satisfactory for predicting the time of egg hatch of T. processionea. Hence, the model was used to retrospectively predict the time of egg hatch of T. processionea in the Karlsruhe area, which indicates that the time of egg hatch has fluctuated over the past 130 years. In the last two decades, however, predicted time of egg hatch is much earlier than the long-term average due to the increase in winter and early spring temperatures. Comparison of predicted time of egg hatch of T. processionea and long-term records of the time of foliation of its common host Quercus robur revealed that in the study area the temporal advance in the timing of both events was similar. This is not in accordance with recently published research on spring-feeding folivores, which report a diverging trend in the timing of egg hatch and budburst of their host plants as a consequence of human-induced climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Does the prediction of the time of egg hatch of Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) using a frost day/temperature sum model provide evidence of an increasing temporal mismatch between the time of egg hatch and that of budburst of Quercus robur due to recent global warming?

Wagenhoff¹,

Wagenhoff²,

Blum³

et al. 2014

Eur. J. Entomol.

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Based on the close temporal synchrony between host development and insect phenology [33], we used day of bud burst (BBT) as estimated by the phenological model developed by Menzel [30] as an indicator of the specific climatic conditions in a given year. This model is a function of the daily mean temperature with specific threshold values of both warm and chill days and showed a good match with observed bud burst in forest stands in Brandenburg.…”

Section: Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Möller¹,

Hentschel²,

Wenning³

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:The biology and population dynamics of pine sawfly Diprion pini L. are extremely complex and variable. Among other factors, climatic conditions determine the potential for mass outbreaks of the species. In this paper, we investigate this influence and describe a statistical approach to identify responsible climatic variables in floating time windows, thus identifying the factors responsible for the transition from latency to outbreak events. Analyses were built upon a data base comprising outbreak events and fine-scaled climatic data for the period 2002-2016 for a model region in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. By applying Random Forest statistic classification analyses, we isolated a set of four variables. They cover precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in distinct periods during the current and the previous year. These periods are not fixed in their position but attached to the floating phenological date of bud burst of the host species Pinus sylvestris L. The complete set of variables was able to distinguish forests likely to be defoliated from those not threatened at high probabilities (95% true-positive rate, 98% true-negative rate). The identified climatic windows offer insights into population dynamics in the study region, support adjustments in current monitoring algorithms, and indicate starting points for further investigations covering other regions or different years.

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Natural History of the Processionary Moths (Thaumetopoea spp.): New Insights in Relation to Climate Change

Battisti¹,

Avcı²,

Avtzis³

et al. 2014

Processionary Moths and Climate Change : An Update

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Temporal synchrony of Thaumetopoea processionea egg hatch and Quercus robur budburst

Cited by 20 publications

References 41 publications

Does the prediction of the time of egg hatch of Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) using a frost day/temperature sum model provide evidence of an increasing temporal mismatch between the time of egg hatch and that of budburst of Quercus robur due to recent global warming?

Does the prediction of the time of egg hatch of Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) using a frost day/temperature sum model provide evidence of an increasing temporal mismatch between the time of egg hatch and that of budburst of Quercus robur due to recent global warming?

Improved Outbreak Prediction for Common Pine Sawfly (Diprion pini L.) by Analyzing Floating ‘Climatic Windows’ as Keys for Changes in Voltinism

Natural History of the Processionary Moths (Thaumetopoea spp.): New Insights in Relation to Climate Change

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