Temporary “Circuit Breaker” Lockdowns Could Effectively Delay a COVID-19 Second Wave Infection Peak to Early Spring

Rawson, Thomas; Huntingford, Chris; Bonsall, Michael B.

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.614945

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The introduction of immediate restrictions, such as so-called short, sharp, circuit breaker-type lockdowns, has been used to successfully control emerging SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across Australia and New Zealand, where COVID-19 has also previously been eliminated. [26][27][28] We estimate that one hotel quarantine breach alone was responsible for approximately 98% of cases in Victoria's second wave, with initial growth rates of this lineage similar to those reported for other highly transmissible lineages internationally, most notably the B.1.1.7 lineage in the UK. 29,30 This analysis aimed to compare the outbreak in Victoria with another rapidly expanding lineage; however, the scenarios that produced these two outbreaks differ substantially.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

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Genomics-informed responses in the elimination of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia: an observational, genomic epidemiological study

Lane

Sherry

Porter

et al. 2021

The Lancet Public Health

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Background A cornerstone of Australia's ability to control COVID-19 has been effective border control with an extensive supervised quarantine programme. However, a rapid recrudescence of COVID-19 was observed in the state of Victoria in June, 2020. We aim to describe the genomic findings that located the source of this second wave and show the role of genomic epidemiology in the successful elimination of COVID-19 for a second time in Australia.Methods In this observational, genomic epidemiological study, we did genomic sequencing of all laboratoryconfirmed cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in Victoria, Australia between Jan 25, 2020, and Jan 31, 2021. We did phylogenetic analyses, genomic cluster discovery, and integrated results with epidemiological data (detailed information on demographics, risk factors, and exposure) collected via interview by the Victorian Government Department of Health. Genomic transmission networks were used to group multiple genomic clusters when epidemiological and genomic data suggested they arose from a single importation event and diversified within Victoria. To identify transmission of emergent lineages between Victoria and other states or territories in Australia, all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences uploaded before Feb 11, 2021, were obtained from the national sequence sharing programme AusTrakka, and epidemiological data were obtained from the submitting laboratories. We did phylodynamic analyses to estimate the growth rate, doubling time, and number of days from the first local infection to the collection of the first sequenced genome for the dominant local cluster, and compared our growth estimates to previously published estimates from a similar growth phase of lineage B.1.1.7 (also known as the Alpha variant) in the UK.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomics-informed responses in the elimination of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia: an observational, genomic epidemiological study

Lane

Sherry

Porter

et al. 2021

The Lancet Public Health

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“…With successful results in clinical trials of anti-viral medications [ 27 ], keeping the disease contained for as long as possible can be an effective way to control the current epidemic, while the national government also needs to prepare a distinct COVID-19 response strategy including a prompt administration of those treatments and resolving a stagnation in vaccine uptake. In addition, a temporary introduction of the “circuit breaker” measure (i.e., a tight set of restrictions for a limited amount of time) can be considered to relieve unsustainable pressure on the healthcare settings [ 28 ]. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the basic reproduction number of the Delta variant and the emergence of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants, the risk assessment should be conducted on a regular basis based on the existing health care capabilities and scenario-based projection of transmission dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea

et al. 2022

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Background With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Results Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022. Conclusions Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.

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“…A gradual release strategy by allowing different population fractions in lockdown to re-enter the working non-quarantined population seems more effective than an “on-off” strategy of releasing everyone but re-establishing lockdown if infections become too high. 14 The optimal strategy was found to be to release half the population 2–4 weeks from the end of an initial infection peak, and then wait another 3–4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing everyone else.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

Mégarbane

Bourasset²,

Scherrmann

2021

J GEN INTERN MED

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Background Since late summer 2020, the French authorities implemented a curfew/lightened lockdown-alternating strategy instead of strict lockdown, to improve acceptability and limit socioeconomic consequences. However, data on curfew-related efficacy to control the epidemic are scarce. Objective To investigate the effects on COVID-19 spread in France of curfew combined to local and/or nationwide restrictions from late summer 2020 to mid-February 2021. Design We conducted a comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)–based model completed with epidemiokinetic tools. Main Measures We analyzed the time-course of epidemic progression rate under curfew in French Guyana and five metropolitan regions where additional restrictions were implemented at different times. Using linear regressions of the decay/increase rates in daily contaminations, we calculated the epidemic regression half-lives (t 1/2β ) for each identified period. Key Results In French Guyana, two decay periods with rapid regression (t 1/2β of ~10 days) were observed under curfew, with slowing (t 1/2β of ~43 days) when curfew was lightened. During the 2-week pre-lockdown curfew (2020/10/17–2020/11/02) in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, and Ile-de-France, the epidemic progression was unchanged. During the post-lockdown curfew (2020/12/15–2020/02/14), the epidemic slowly regressed in Grand-Est (t 1/2β of ~37 days), whereas its progression rate plateaued in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and increased immediately in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur, Ile-de-France, and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, whatever the curfew starting time was (06:00 or 08:00 pm). Interestingly, a delayed slow decay (17 days < t 1/2β < 64 days) occurred under curfew in all regions except Ile-de-France. Conclusions Curfew allowed the temporary control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, however variably in the French regions, without preventing lockdown necessity. To accelerate the epidemic regression such as observed in French Guyana, curfew should be implemented timely with additional restrictions.

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Temporary “Circuit Breaker” Lockdowns Could Effectively Delay a COVID-19 Second Wave Infection Peak to Early Spring

Cited by 8 publications

References 4 publications

Genomics-informed responses in the elimination of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia: an observational, genomic epidemiological study

Genomics-informed responses in the elimination of COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia: an observational, genomic epidemiological study

Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea

Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

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