Ten principles for thinking about the future: a primer for
environmental professionals

Βengston, David Ν.

doi:10.2737/nrs-gtr-175

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…The themes range from a dissolution of the role of the Federal government or the Forest Service, to a growing substitution of virtual reality for the natural world, to rising environmental activism. This is a surprisingly wide-ranging set of desirable and undesirable themes to emerge from a single social issue, and illustrates a core principle of futures research: Numerous possible and plausible futures could unfold (Bengston 2017). Many of the themes, such as commodification and increasing conflict, exemplify unexpected consequences of the issue "growing apathy toward the environment."…”

Section: Emerging Future Themesmentioning

confidence: 93%

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

Hines¹,

Βengston²

2019

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Horizon scanning is a method for detecting and interpreting the implications of emerging issues and other signals of change, both within and outside of an organization or field. Anticipating possible changes that may affect an organization is a first step toward strategic thinking, planning, and actions that can help prepare it for an uncertain future. Developing insight into emerging possible futures-or strategic foresight-can help decisionmakers respond proactively to seize opportunities and mitigate potential threats. Decisionmaking in forestry and other natural resource management fields has underutilized formal horizon scanning. The USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station's Strategic ForesightGroup recently worked with the University of Houston Foresight graduate program to design and implement a formal horizon scanning system for the agency, with the goal of increasing strategic foresight. The nine papers in this report summarize the early phases of this process and lessons learned. Among the topics are the development of a method to identify useful scanning sources pertinent to forest futures, ways to analyze scanning hits, and distinguishing between current and emerging issues for the Forest Service. Also discussed is the range of communication products generated to date by the project. The report contains the complete guide written for those volunteering to do the scanning. This collection will acquaint forest planners, managers, and policymakers with horizon scanning as an integral step in anticipating the consequences of potential change and making better decisions in a rapidly changing environment. Cover ArtSchematic of the horizon scanning process. Source: Hines and Bishop (2015), as cited in paper 1, this volume. Created by Maria Romero.The use of trade, firm, or corporation names in this publication is for the information and convenience of the reader. Such use does not constitute an official endorsement or approval by the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the Forest Service of any product or service to the exclusion of others that may be suitable. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe compilers thank all the members of the horizon scanning team for their excellent work searching for signals of change that could help shape the future of forestry.

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Section: Emerging Future Themesmentioning

confidence: 93%

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

Hines¹,

Βengston²

2019

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“…The ten principles for thinking about the future described in this article were originally developed as part of an effort to improve futures awareness and literacy among environmental and natural resource professionals (Bengston 2017). But as a set of proposed core principles, they clearly have applicability for foresight education in other fields and for students at all levels in the educational system.…”

Section: Concluding Thoughts For Foresight Educationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principles for Thinking about the Future and Foresight Education

Βengston

2018

World Futures Review

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Most fields of study have introductory textbooks with the word “principles” in the title: “Principles of Economics,” “Principles of Ecology,” and many others. The principles explained in these textbooks are the core unifying and ordering concepts for their respective fields. They provide a frame of reference for students who are new to the field and taking the first steps toward mastering it. The abundance of “principles” textbooks and long history of the use of core principles in education suggest that a clear set of unifying principles may be a useful way to teach students how to productively think about and understand complex topics. This article identifies and describes a set of core principles for thinking about the future based on a review of more than 50 years of published futures research literature. The ten principles are as follows: The future is (1) plural; (2) possible, plausible, probable, and preferable; (3) open; (4) fuzzy; (5) surprising; (6) not surprising; (7) fast; (8) slow; (9) archetypal; and (10) inbound and outbound. The principles are described and their potential educational use is discussed. Core futures principles may be useful for introducing students of all ages to thinking about and preparing for the future.

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“…A fundamental precept of strategic foresight research is that there are multiple possible futures (Bengston 2017, Bishop 1998, Dator 2002. These futures can be influenced by myriad social, environmental, economic, and technological trends and events.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%