Ten Years of International Shipping on the Northern Sea Route: Trends and Challenges

Abstract

Analysis of detailed statistics shows remarkable fluctuations in the volume and composition of voyages on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the northern coast of Russia since international use began in 2010. There has been strong growth in destination shipping between the Arctic and ports outside the region, but transit shipping between the Pacific and the Atlantic has not experienced the growth many had anticipated. Explanations are found in international market conditions as well as in the management of the NSR, with important lessons for the future development of different shipping segments. Shipping companies from several countries took part in the period up to 2019, but they seem to have become less central in the current phase of NSR shipping, which is dominated by the transport of hydrocarbons out of the Arctic. Russia expects international transit to pick up later. However, Russia alone cannot determine the volume of international traffic: it is the international shipping industry that will assess the balance of factors and conditions, and conclude if and when the shorter Arctic routes are safe, efficient, reliable, environmentally sound and economically viable in comparison with other routes.

The interaction of ice and law in Arctic marine accessibility

“…With ice cover in retreat, Arctic routes for destination shipping present a plausible alternative to the Suez Canal. Whether by the Northern Sea Route, the Northwest Passage, or the Transpolar Route, Arctic routes are 30 to 50% shorter than the Suez or Panama Canals ( 1 ), with transit time reduced by 14 to 20 d assuming the same sailing speed ( 2 ). The slower sailing speeds typically adopted in the Arctic could reduce this advantage, but worldwide “slow steaming” is a candidate short-term strategy identified by the International Maritime Organization to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions ( 3 ).…”

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Atmospheric Emissions from Shipping along the Northern Sea Route

“…Number of unique ships were used as a parameter to represent the ship activity in this study. Similar parameters were also used in previous studies [18,21,34,38,39]. Ship activity analysis in this study is therefore from the viewpoints of just of number of unique ships.…”

“…The NSR was commercially opened in 1935 and has, to varying degrees, been used since then [30,34]. In relation to sea ice decline and increased navigability during the 2000s, a testing phase of the feasibility of the sea route was initiated between 2010 and 2013, which rapidly increased shipping activity along the sea route.…”

“…In relation to sea ice decline and increased navigability during the 2000s, a testing phase of the feasibility of the sea route was initiated between 2010 and 2013, which rapidly increased shipping activity along the sea route. The year of 2013 was an important one, as new and more flexible rules and regulations become permanent, ultimately increasing overall ship traffic and transported cargo in the years that followed [34]. Additionally, 2013 marked the beginning of the construction of the Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which has had a big impact on future shipping in the region.…”

“…The year-round Kola-Ob shipping lane transits areas covered by seasonally dense sea ice, due to multiple ice-strengthened vessels transporting metals and gas condensate from Dudinka to Murmansk or Europe [21]. This highlights the potential that factors other than sea ice have for the development of ship activity in the area, such as global economy, regional infrastructure (i.e., access to ice-strengthened ships), and regulations (i.e., IMO Polar Code and transit fees) [21,34,[43][44][45]. [42].…”