Testing climate-based species distribution models with recent field surveys of pond-breeding amphibians in eastern Missouri

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an important tool for ecologists by providing the ability to predict the distributions of organisms based on species niche parameters and available habitat across broad geographic areas. However, investigation of the appropriate extent of environmental data needed to make accurate predictions has received limited attention. We investigate whether SDMs developed with regional climate and species locality data (i.e., within Missouri, USA) produce more accurate predictions of species occurrences than models developed with data from across an entire species range. To test the accuracy of the model predictions, field surveys were performed in 2007 and 2008 at 103 study ponds for eight amphibian study species. Models developed using data from across the entire species range did not accurately predict the occurrences of any study species. However, models developed using data only from Missouri produced accurate predictions for four study species, all of which are near the edge of their geographic ranges within the study area. These results suggest that species distribution modeling with regionally focused data may be preferable for local ecological and conservation purposes, and that climate factors may be more important for determining species distributions at the edge of their geographic ranges.

Relative performance of ecological niche and occupancy models for predicting invasions by patchily-distributed species

“…Our results add to the body of evidence on the relevance of ecological niche models for predicting local and regional occurrence of species within their native ranges (Trumbo et al 2011;Peterman et al 2013), and in novel environments (Gormley et al 2011;Vaclavik and Meentemeyer 2012). While climate alone may oversimplify the spatial extent of invasions, ecological niche models for patchily-distributed generalist species are a reliable alternative to using data intensive methods that require substantial resources and foresight.…”

“…4), the rank correlation between the two predictions is informative. Focusing on an area in eastern Missouri, Trumbo et al (2011) evaluated the accuracy of ecological niche models compared to estimates from single detection/ non-detection surveys for nine amphibian species, and found that six of nine species (including L. clamitans) had high congruence, while three species showed a weak or no congruence (including L. catesbeianus). These results were apparent in the spatial predictions of invasion extent, where ecological niche models based on data from both the native and invaded range overestimated suitability for L. catesbeianus at our occupancy survey sites (Fig.…”

“…L. catesbeianus and L. clamitans are native to eastern North America, and despite high range overlap (Werner et al 1995), they are thought to have only partiallyoverlapping distributions along a freshwater habitat gradient (Collins and Wilbur 1979;Wellborn et al 1996). In contrast, L. clamitans are a more generalist wetland species, occupying a variety of habitats across the hydroperiod continuum (Wellborn et al 1996;Van Buskirk 2003), and their occurrence is primarily limited by climatic factors, such as mean annual temperature and annual precipitation (Trumbo et al 2011). In contrast, L. clamitans are a more generalist wetland species, occupying a variety of habitats across the hydroperiod continuum (Wellborn et al 1996;Van Buskirk 2003), and their occurrence is primarily limited by climatic factors, such as mean annual temperature and annual precipitation (Trumbo et al 2011).…”

Assessing the physiological sensitivity of amphibians to extreme environmental change using the stress endocrine responses

“…Under this promising scenario, we highlight some topics relating anuran physiological ecology to climate that remain understudied and that can contribute to amphibian conservation. Phenology and dormancy: Amphibians usually link reproduction to environmental cues, and therefore may have their phenology impacted by climate change (Beebee 1995, Blaustein et al 2001, Trumbo et al 2011). Indeed, a recent review lists phenological shifts among several key nonacute lethal impacts of climate change on amphibians (Li et al 2013).…”

How climate extremes—not means—define a species' geographic range boundary via a demographic tipping point

“…Amphibians, being ectothermic, are also sensitive to extreme overwinter climatic conditions (Tattersall and Ultsch 2008). For example, populations of the Columbia spotted frog are expected to enjoy increased viability due to improved survivorship and reproduction associated with milder winters brought by climate change (McCaffery and Maxell 2010), and yet occupancy predictions from species distribution models are unreliable at spatial scales relevant for amphibian conservation (Trumbo et al 2011). Development of detailed, mechanistic models like that developed here to help understand constraints on amphibian range expansion may help predict distribution changes for these species, which are some of the most vulnerable to climate change (Lawler et al 2009).…”