Testing different sources of environmental unpredictability on adolescent functioning: ancestral cue versus statistical learning and the role of temperament

Abstract

Background The dimensional model of environmental adversity highlighted the effects of an unpredictable environment in promoting risky development. Toward gaining greater specificity in understanding, this multimethod, longitudinal study investigated the role of two sources of environmental unpredictability—ancestral cues versus statistical learning, and their interaction with dove temperament conceptualized within the evolutionary model of temperament, in shaping adolescent functioning. Methods Participants were 192 families with an adolescent (Mage = 12.4) followed for two annual waves. We measured unpredictability within the ancestral‐cue approach as incidents of disruptive family events, and statistical‐learning unpredictability as the random variability in observed moment‐to‐moment maternal hostility during parent–child interaction. We focused on dove temperament, which characterizes strategies of cautious and inhibited behavior in novel contexts and persistence and intrinsic engagement in benign contexts. Results Findings indicated unique effects of ancestral‐cue versus statistical‐learning unpredictability—in interaction with dove temperament—in association with adolescent functioning. Ancestral‐cue unpredictability interacted with dove temperament in association with vagal stress reactivity, and the interactive effects of statistical‐learning unpredictability were only associated with set‐shifting. Furthermore, the family instability‐x‐dove temperament interaction was linked to adolescent adjustment via vagal reactivity. Adolescents with lower dove temperament showed dampened vagal reactivity within the more unpredictable environments, which was in turn associated with a greater decrease in social withdrawal over time. Conclusions The findings highlighted the specificity in different sources of environmental unpredictability in shaping adolescent development.

Childhood unpredictability research within the developmental psychopathology framework: Advances, implications, and future directions

“…Another exciting and growing area of research focuses on associations of childhood unpredictability with physiological processes and brain development. Though this area of research is relatively sparse in humans, we will highlight four papers from this growing area with outcomes that include vagal reactivity (Li et al, 2023), cortisol regulation (Doom et al, 2018), development of the uncinate fasciculus (Granger et al, 2021), and salience network integrity (Jirsaraie et al, 2023). Li et al (2023) tested whether unpredictability and adolescent temperament interacted to predict vagal (parasympathetic) reactivity in response to a family conflict discussion task.…”

“…Though this area of research is relatively sparse in humans, we will highlight four papers from this growing area with outcomes that include vagal reactivity (Li et al, 2023), cortisol regulation (Doom et al, 2018), development of the uncinate fasciculus (Granger et al, 2021), and salience network integrity (Jirsaraie et al, 2023). Li et al (2023) tested whether unpredictability and adolescent temperament interacted to predict vagal (parasympathetic) reactivity in response to a family conflict discussion task. This study found that adolescents with low dove temperament (low inhibition, high boldness and exploration) showed blunted vagal reactivity under high levels of family instability compared to adolescents with high dove (high inhibition, low exploration) temperaments.…”

“…Recent studies have also begun to identify factors that contribute to resilience amid unpredictable circumstances. For example, adolescents with low dove temperament displayed better adaptation to parenting unpredictability than those with high dove temperament (Li et al, 2023). Additionally, parental investment buffers the effects of environmental unpredictability (i.e., unpredictable life events, family conflict) on children's life history development (Yang et al, 2023).…”

Early adversity and the development of explore–exploit tradeoffs

“…The 'ancestral cues' and 'statistical learning' hypotheses are mutually compatible: people may combine ancestral and learned cues in developing models of their world [103] (Figure I). Empirical work suggests that people may vary in the extent to which they rely on each type of cue [108].…”

A framework for studying environmental statistics in developmental science

“…It is consistent with multiple statistical formalizations of change over time. For example, one researcher might compute variance in harshness across the measurement period (e.g., Li et al, 2018Li et al, , 2022. Another might track abrupt shifts in the mean or variance in harshness (i.e., changepoints; described in Young et al, 2020).…”