Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

Gaver, Donald P.; Jacobs, Patricia A.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1520-6750(199710)44:7<623::aid-nav2>3.0.co;2-e

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Gaver and Jacobs [23] who consider such aspects for items that require destructive testing). As examples of systems for which such a setting may be realistic, one can think of systems that must trigger alarms for a variety of possible warnings in industrial applications, or software systems that control the use of different databases and enable information transfers between them.…”

Section: Zero-failure Testing Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first integer value of t for which the integer-valued solution to this optimisation problem is affected by the active time constraint is t = 325, for which the unconstrained integer-valued solution would be n = (56,35,80,23 as the influence of the costs of testing on the total expected costs decreases. This allows in particular more tasks of type 2 to be tested, for which the corresponding failure is relatively expensive, and which arrive at a rate that is twice the arrival rate of tasks of type 1.…”

Section: Example 421mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the real-valued optimisation problem, both constraints are active for t ≥ 323. However, for the corresponding integer-valued solutions, which remain constant, namely n = (56,35,79,23), for t ≥ 320, the test budget is fully used while one unit of time remains unused. …”

Section: Example 422mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Assessment Study of Channels Downstream Slopes Erosion in the Maritime Environment

Khalifa

Ganainy

Nasr

2009

Journal of Coastal Research

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We study required numbers of tasks to be tested for a technical system, including systems with built-in redundancy, in order to demonstrate its reliability with regard to its use in a process after testing, where the system has to function for different types of tasks, which we assume to be independent. We consider optimal numbers of tests as required for Bayesian reliability demonstration in terms of failure-free periods, which is suitable in case of catastrophic failures, and in terms of the expected number of failures in a process after testing. We explicitly assume that testing reveals zero failures. For the process after testing, we consider both deterministic and random numbers of tasks. We also consider optimal numbers of tasks to be tested when aiming at minimal total expected costs, including costs of testing and of failures in the process after testing. Cost and time constraints on testing are also included in the analysis. We consider such reliability demonstration for a single type of task, as well as for multiple types of tasks to be performed by one system. We also consider optimal Bayesian reliability demonstration testing in combination with flexibility in the system redundancy, where more components can be installed to reduce test effort. For systems with redundancy, we restrict attention to systems with exchangeable components, with testing only at the component level.We use the Bayesian approach with the Binomial model and Beta prior distributions for the failure probabilities. We discuss the influence of choice of prior distribution on the required zero-failure test numbers, where these inferences are very sensitive to the choice of prior distribution, which requires careful attention to the interpretation of non-informativeness of priors. DeclarationThe work in this thesis is based on research carried out at the Statistics and Probability Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Durham, England.No part of this thesis has been submitted elsewhere for any other degree or qualification and it is all my own work unless referenced to the contrary in the text.

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Section: Zero-failure Testing Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Example 421mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Probabilistic Assessment Study of Channels Downstream Slopes Erosion in the Maritime Environment

Khalifa

Ganainy

Nasr

2009

Journal of Coastal Research

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Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Shevasuthisilp

Vardeman

2004

Naval Research Logistics

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Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one-shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple-state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test-and-redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5-state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra-high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change.

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Gaver

Jacobs

1998

IIE Transactions

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Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

Cited by 7 publications

References 17 publications

Probabilistic Assessment Study of Channels Downstream Slopes Erosion in the Maritime Environment

Probabilistic Assessment Study of Channels Downstream Slopes Erosion in the Maritime Environment

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

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