Testing tourism-led economic growth and economic-driven tourism growth hypotheses

Aliyev, Khatai; Ahmadova, Nargiz

doi:10.37741/t.68.1.4

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda’s (2002) pioneering work favour TLG in Spain. Similar evidence of TLG is also witnessed in Georgia (Aliyev and Ahmadova, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 71%

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The volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators on inbound tourism in India

Rastogi

Kanoujiya

2023

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Purpose This study aims to determine the mutual association between the volatility of macroeconomic indicators (MIs) and India’s tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach Bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are applied to estimate the volatility spillover effect (VSE) from one market to another. Compared to the other methods, bivariate GARCH has wide acceptance for estimating the VSE. The monthly MIs and tourism demand data (2012–2021) are gathered for empirical analysis. Findings The evidence of the growth-led tourism (GLT) demand is seen. In the short term, tourism-led growth (TLG) is indicated. However, this TLG does not sustain itself in the long run. There is significant evidence in favour of the VSE from the MIs to the tourism demand ensuring GLT in India. Practical implications The main implication of the current study is to ignore the short-term influence of tourism demand on the economy because it does not sustain itself in the long run. However, the long-term influence of macroeconomic indicators on tourism demand should be seen with caution. Hedging, if possible, may be considered to protect the tourism sector’s interests from adverse economic fallouts. Originality/value There is a lack of studies on the volatility (especially on the VSE) between MIs and tourism demand. Hence, this study fills the research gap and presents a novel and unique contribution to the extent of the knowledge body on the topic and significantly contributes.

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“…Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda’s (2002) pioneering work favour TLG in Spain. Similar evidence of TLG is also witnessed in Georgia (Aliyev and Ahmadova, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 71%

“…Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda's (2002) pioneering work favour TLG in Spain. Similar evidence of TLG is also witnessed in Georgia (Aliyev and Ahmadova, 2020). Brida et al (2016) opine in favour of TLG in an extensive literature review of more than 100 studies.…”

Section: Tourism and Economic Growth Of The Countrysupporting

confidence: 54%

The volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators on inbound tourism in India

Rastogi

Kanoujiya

2023

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“…In a relatively close finding to the study of Pérez-Rodríguez et al (2020), the empirical analysis conducted by Sokhanvar (2019) also failed to uphold the tourism-led growth hypothesis for the case of Croatian and the Portuguese economies. Furthermore, the results of the empirical examination of the TLGH conducted by Aliyev and Ahmadova (2020) using ARDLBT approach to cointegration also reject the hypothesis for the case of the Georgian economy thus supporting similar findings by Sokhanvar (2019) for the case of Croatian and the Portuguese economies.…”

Section: Literature Reviewsupporting

confidence: 68%

Significance of Air Transport to Tourism-Induced Growth Hypothesis in E7 Economies

Onifade

Gyamfi

Bekun

et al. 2022

Tourism (Zagreb, Online)

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The study seeks to examine the significance of the tourism-induced growth hypothesis from the perspective of air transportation among seven emerging (E7) countries, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey. The combined impact of energy consumption and globalization was also factored into the analysis in order to draw cogent implications for environmental quality as energy demand in E7 economies continues to rise amidst growing urbanization in recent times. The study leverages on second-generational panel data estimators, namely cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag, augmented Mean Group, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Causality techniques. Having established a long-run equilibrium relationship among the outlined variables, the result validates the pertinent role of air transport in enhancing economic growth as a percent rise in airline passengers' arrivals significantly enhances growth in the E7 economies by 0.77%. In addition, the feedback causality between the variables also strengthens the pivotal roles of air transport in economic growth, thereby giving credence to the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) in the E7. However, there are detrimental environmental implications for the E7 when considering the causal nexus between economic growth and the dynamics of carbon-inducing energy consumption among the countries. Hence, investments in clean energy and transport infrastructures are recommended to ensure a sustainable environment where the tourism industry can flourish.

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“…As a major job creator, tourism not only directly supports the governments but also facilitates foreign investment in the form of capital fl ows into the country. It also enables the diff usion of technology and knowledge transfer which ultimately promotes the growth of any economy (Aliyev & Ahmadova, 2020). Apart from this, a large number of MSMEs are also engaged in tourism-related business (Maniga, 2020).…”

Section: Global Tourism At a Glancementioning

confidence: 99%

Global Tourism and COVID-19

Harchandani

Shome

2021

Tourism (Zagreb, Online)

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The world is facing an unprecedented situation with COVID-19. The normal functioning of economies has been completely interrupted with the lockdowns in place. The consequences of pandemic have been deeply felt across the entire global tourism ecosystem. Travel restrictions that were put in place to reduce the outbreak of coronavirus, affected various sectors of every economy. Since recovery of tourism is crucial for the turnaround of any economy, this study aims to provide an overview of the impact of COVID-19 on global tourism and highlighted the ways that can lead the path of revival of the sector. To make this assessment, the paper studied three associated industries of tourism viz. airlines; hospitality with special focus on the hotel segment; and the MSMEs involved directly in tourism related business. Region-wise analysis reveals that the Asia-Pacific zone has been the worst affected followed by the Middle East. As countries are opening up their borders and encouraging tourism, the sector is facing the challenge of rebuilding the consumer confidence in order to promote future tourism. Hence, the paper also provides an overview of policy decisions taken worldwide which will be crucial for sustenance of the global tourism sector.

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Testing tourism-led economic growth and economic-driven tourism growth hypotheses

Cited by 17 publications

References 46 publications

The volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators on inbound tourism in India

The volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators on inbound tourism in India

Significance of Air Transport to Tourism-Induced Growth Hypothesis in E7 Economies

Global Tourism and COVID-19

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