Thailand's macroeconomic miracle

Warr, Peter; Nidhiprabha, Bhanupong

doi:10.1596/0-8213-2654-6

Cited by 45 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Contrary to the common perception that Thailand's boom (1987 to 1996) If the owners of these funds chose to withdraw them from Thailand, the Bank of Thailand would be unable to defend its fixed exchange rate. This is precisely what happened in July 1997 (Warr 1999 and2005a [ Table 5 about here]…”

Section: [Figure 4 About Here]supporting

confidence: 54%

Poverty Reduction through Long-term Growth: The Thai Experience

Warr

2009

Asian Economic Papers

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Thailand's impressive long-term rate of economic growth has resulted mainly from accumulation of physical capital. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the economy-wide level explains about one-third of the aggregate growth of output. However, this TFP growth was due entirely to resource reallocation from low-productivity sectors, especially agriculture, to higher-productivity industry and services sectors. TFP growth at the sectoral level has been important only in agriculture. Poverty has declined remarkably over time despite a steady increase in income inequality. The rate of decline in poverty incidence has been directly related to the rate of economic growth. (c) 2009 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Section: [Figure 4 About Here]supporting

confidence: 54%

Poverty Reduction through Long-term Growth: The Thai Experience

Warr

2009

Asian Economic Papers

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“…In fact, political parties have the right to campaign on populist platform but must also be accountable to the voters, particularly the taxpayers. Thai governments have long‐term reputation of fiscal discipline (Warr and Bhanupong, 1996), thanks to the Budget Procedures Act legislated in 1959. But the paddy pledging policy and most populist policies are usually financed by off‐budget borrowings which are not subject to parliamentary approval.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Thai Paddy Pledging Policy: Its Performance and Social Costs

Poapongsakorn¹,

Pantakua²

2014

World Food Policy

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The paper assesses the benefits and costs of the Thai paddy pledging policy between October 2011 and May 2014. The scheme, which purchased 52 percent of total paddy production from the farmers, was to date the largest intervention by the government in the rice market. Its total costs were 984 billion baht (or 41% of the 2013 fiscal budget). The government also became the largest rice seller, trying unsuccessfully to corner the export market by withholding large supplies of rice from the market. Thai rice export dropped sharply as the export prices of Thai rice were much higher than those of India and Vietnam which toppled Thailand from the world largest exporter position. The attempt to release rice through the channel of Government‐to‐government sales failed. But the government refused to admit its failure and kept all rice sale information in secret. In fact, most of the claimed G‐to‐G sales were sold to the connected traders who in turn sold them in the domestic market. The policy directly benefited at least one third of the rice farmers who sold rice to the government. Other non‐participating farmers also benefited from the higher domestic price. Yet most of the benefits went to the medium‐ and large‐scale farmers. Thai consumers also gained because the government maintained a smooth flow of rice in the domestic market at the prices prevailing at the end of the previous government, despite higher paddy price. The study also finds that there was corruption in the government rice sale as it sold rice to a few connected traders at the prices below the market prices. That explained why the fiscal loss is estimated at 595 billion baht to 885 billion baht, depending on the time it will take to dispose 18 million tons of rice in the government stock. The policy also creates other social costs. Thus the social costs exceeded its benefits.

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“…These villages are located in the historically poor, rural district of Nang Rong, and due to poverty, past high fertility and limited arable land for future development, provide an important source of migrants to urban centers, primarily Bangkok. We observe the period from 1984 to 2000, when Thailand’s shift from an agriculture-based export economy to a manufacture-based export economy occurred and migration took on added significance in Thai livelihoods (Bello et al 1998; Phongpaichit 1980; Phongpaichit and Baker 1998; Warr 1993; Warr and Nidhiprabha 1996). …”

Section: Cumulative Migration Patterns In Thailandmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…During the period from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, Thailand’s economy grew on average 10% per year (Bello et al 1998; Warr and Nidhiprabha 1996). This growth was fueled by production in export manufacturing, which was a result of rising wages in nearby, newly industrialized countries and changes in textile import quotas to the US, as well as increases in foreign direct investment, primarily from Japan (Nidhiprabha 1994; Phongpaichit and Baker 1998).…”

Section: Cumulative Migration Patterns In Thailandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Migration, Diverging Communities: Changing Character of Migrant Streams in Rural Thailand

Garip

Curran

2009

Popul Res Policy Rev

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This paper studies how increasing migration changes the character of migrant streams in sending communities. Cumulative causation theory posits that past migration patterns determine future flows, as prior migrants provide resources, influence, or normative pressures that make individuals more likely to migrate. The theory implies exponentially increasing migration flows that are decreasingly selective. Recent research identifies heterogeneity in the cumulative patterns and selectivity of migration in communities. We propose that this heterogeneity may be explained by individuals’ differential access to previously accumulated migration experience. Multi-level, longitudinal data from 22 rural Thai communities allow us to measure the distribution of past experience as a proxy for its accessibility to community members. We find that migration becomes a less-selective process as migration experience accumulates, and migrants become increasingly diverse in socio-demographic characteristics. Yet, selectivity within migrant streams persists if migration experience is not uniformly distributed among, and hence not equally accessible to, all community members. The results confirm that the accumulation and distribution of prior migrants’ experiences distinctly shape future migration flows, and may lead to diverging cumulative patterns in communities over time.

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Thailand's macroeconomic miracle

Cited by 45 publications

References 0 publications

Poverty Reduction through Long-term Growth: The Thai Experience

Poverty Reduction through Long-term Growth: The Thai Experience

Assessing the Thai Paddy Pledging Policy: Its Performance and Social Costs

Increasing Migration, Diverging Communities: Changing Character of Migrant Streams in Rural Thailand

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