IntroductionIn the past, most patients with multiple myeloma (MM) died within 5 to 10 years after diagnosis. Several new therapeutic interventions have been introduced for MM during the past decade. These include autologous stem-cell transplantation (SCT) and novel agents, including thalidomide, an antiangiogenic and immunomodulatory small molecule, lenalidomide, a derivative of thalidomide, and bortezomib, a protosome inhibitor. All 3 novel agents have been shown to be active in MM, and regimens containing one of these compounds are gradually replacing chemotherapy-only regimens as standard of care in MM for patients who are not candidates for SCT. 1,2 The effect of such therapeutic innovation and its dissemination on long-term prognosis should be monitored in an as timely as possible manner, but it is only disclosed with substantial delay by conventional methods of survival analysis. We aimed to disclose trends from 1990-1992 to 2002-2004 and to derive up-to-date estimates of long-term survival of patients with MM by novel techniques of period survival analysis. 3,4 Because of the differential application, efficacy and tolerance of novel therapies according to age, we were specifically interested in age-specific trends of prognosis. Detroit, Seattle-Puget Sound, and San Francisco-Oakland that together cover a population of approximately 30 million people. Geographic areas were selected for inclusion in the SEER Program based on their ability to operate and maintain a high-quality population-based cancer reporting system and for their epidemiologically significant population subgroups. The SEER population is comparable to the general US population for measures of poverty and education, although it tends to be more urban and has a higher proportion of foreign-born persons than the latter.
MethodsFor this analysis, we selected 27 038 patients aged 15 years or older with a first diagnosis of MM (and no previous cancer diagnosis) between 1980 and 2004, who have been followed for vital status until the end of 2004. After exclusion of 58 patients (0.21%) who were reported by autopsy only and 457 patients (1.69%) who were reported by death certificate only, there remained 26 523 patients (98.10%) for the survival analysis.Five-and 10-year survival was calculated for the calendar periods 1990-1992, 1993-1995, 1996-1998, 1999-200, and 2002-2004 with the period analysis method. 3 Furthermore, we tested for statistical significance of trends in 5-and 10-year survival between 1990-1992 and 2002-2004 by a recently described modeling approach. 4 All analyses were performed separately for the following 5 major age groups: younger than 50 years, 50 to 59 years, 60 to 69 years, 70 to 79 years, and 80 years and older.With period analysis, first proposed by Brenner and Gefeller in 1996, 6 only survival experience during the period of interest is included in the analysis. This is achieved by left truncation of observations at the beginning of the period in addition to right censoring at its end. A graphical illustration of the ...