The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation

Crespin, Elisabeth; Goosse, Hugues; Fichefet, Thierry; Mann, Michael

doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009

Cited by 46 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…This interpretation is supported by respective changes in the AN sodium record in the 15th and 16th centuries (Fig. 6) as well as by model results for the late 15th century (Crespin et al, 2009). However, the existing regional sea-ice records are either too short, as in the case of the Barents Sea (Vinje, 1999), or show only slight variations but no similar patterns for the 15th and 16th centuries (Fig.…”

Section: T Opel Et Al: Eurasian Arctic Climate Over the Past Millensupporting

confidence: 67%

“…The resulting warming induced a reduction of sea-ice cover and albedo mostly in the Barents Sea region. This was accompanied by a reinforced regional cyclonic circulation and, thus, a further advection of warm southerly air to this area, leading to an amplification of the warming (Bengtsson et al, 2004;Crespin et al, 2009).…”

Section: Comparison Of An δ 18 O To Meteorological Data (1800-1998)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya)

2013

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Abstract. Understanding recent Arctic climate change requires detailed information on past changes, in particular on a regional scale. The extension of the depth-age relation of the Akademii Nauk (AN) ice core from Severnaya Zemlya (SZ) to the last 1100 yr provides new perspectives on past climate fluctuations in the Barents and Kara seas region. Here, we present the easternmost high-resolution ice-core climate proxy records (δ 18 O and sodium) from the Arctic. Multiannual AN δ 18 O data as near-surface air-temperature proxies reveal major temperature changes over the last millennium, including the absolute minimum around 1800 and the unprecedented warming to a double-peak maximum in the early 20th century. The long-term cooling trend in δ 18 O is related to a decline in summer insolation but also to the growth of the AN ice cap as indicated by decreasing sodium concentrations. Neither a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly nor a Little Ice Age are detectable in the AN δ 18 O record. In contrast, there is evidence of several abrupt warming and cooling events, such as in the 15th and 16th centuries, partly accompanied by corresponding changes in sodium concentrations. These abrupt changes are assumed to be related to sea-ice cover variability in the Barents and Kara seas region, which might be caused by shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results indicate a significant impact of internal climate variability on Arctic climate change in the last millennium.

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Section: T Opel Et Al: Eurasian Arctic Climate Over the Past Millensupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Comparison Of An δ 18 O To Meteorological Data (1800-1998)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya)

2013

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“…A pronounced warming center is found over Barents Sea in winter in both models, that is supported by the few available nearby reconstructions from northern Fennoscandia and northern Eurasia. Winter warmth over the Barents Sea is also found in warm periods in the last millennium, such as the 15th century Arctic warming and early 20th century warming (Goosse et al, 2003;Crespin et al, 2009).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

et al. 2010

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Abstract. The climate response over northern high latitudes to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated in three types of PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) simulations with different complexity of the modelled climate system. By first undertaking model-data comparison, an objective selection method has been applied to evaluate the capability of the climate models to reproduce the spatial response pattern seen in proxy data. The possible feedback mechanisms behind the climate response have been explored based on the selected model simulations. Subsequent model-model comparisons indicate the importance of including the different physical feedbacks in the climate models. The comparisons between the proxy-based reconstructions and the best fit selected simulations show that over the northern high latitudes, summer temperature change follows closely the insolation change and shows a common feature with strong warming over land and relatively weak warming over ocean at 6 ka compared to 0 ka. Furthermore, the sea-ice-albedo positive feedback enhances this response. The reconstructions of temperature show a stronger response to enhanced insolation in the annual mean temperature than winter and summer temperature. This is verified in the model simulations and the behaviour is attributed to the larger contribution from the large response in autumn. Despite a smaller insolation during winter at 6 ka, a pronounced warming centre is found over Barents Sea in winter in the simulations, which is also supported by the nearby northern Eurasian continental and Fennoscandian reconstructions. This indicates that in the Arctic region, the response of the ocean and the sea ice to the enhanced summer insolation is more important for the winter temperature than the synchronous decrease of the insolation.

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“…In addition to simulations over long periods, the model is suitable and thus more and more used to perform studies that require large ensembles of simulations. This has not been discussed here but recent examples show, for instance, the influence of the choice of parameters in all the components of the model Goetzler et al, 2010) and the way data assimilation in coupled mode could help in reconstructing past climate changes (Crespin et al, 2009;Goosse et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2

et al. 2010

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Abstract. The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 of the three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. LOVE-CLIM 1.2 includes representations of the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the land surface (including vegetation), the ice sheets, the icebergs and the carbon cycle. The atmospheric component is ECBilt2, a T21, 3-level quasigeostrophic model. The ocean component is CLIO3, which consists of an ocean general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model. Its horizontal resolution is of 3 • by 3 • , and there are 20 levels in the ocean. ECBilt-CLIO is coupled to VECODE, a vegetation model that simulates the dynamics of two main terrestrial plant functional types, trees and grasses, as well as desert. VECODE also simulates the evolution of the carbon cycle over land while the ocean carbon cycle is represented by LOCH, a comprehensive model that takes into acCorrespondence to: H. Goosse (hugues.goosse@uclouvain.be) count both the solubility and biological pumps. The ice sheet component AGISM is made up of a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of the ice sheet flow, a visco-elastic bedrock model and a model of the mass balance at the iceatmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, calculations are made on a 10 km by 10 km resolution grid with 31 sigma levels. LOVECLIM1.2 reproduces well the major characteristics of the observed climate both for present-day conditions and for key past periods such as the last millennium, the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite some improvements compared to earlier versions, some biases are still present in the model. The most serious ones are mainly located at low latitudes with an overestimation of the temperature there, a too symmetric distribution of precipitation between the two hemispheres, and an overestimation of precipitation and vegetation cover in the subtropics. In addition, the atmospheric circulation is too weak. The model also tends to underestimate the surface temperature changes (mainly at low latitudes) and to overestimate the ocean heat uptake observed over the last decades.

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The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation

Cited by 46 publications

References 68 publications

Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya)

Eurasian Arctic climate over the past millennium as recorded in the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya)

Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 2: Model-data comparisons

Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2

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