The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

Dörnbrack, Andreas; Pitts, M. C.; Poole, L. R.; Orsolini, Yvan; Nishii, Kazuaki; Nakamura, Hisashi

doi:10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012

Cited by 87 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In both cases, a reversal of the mean zonal flow direction is measured between 50-55 • N, accompanied by a steep increase of the temperature in the Arctic (blue dashed line). The temperature data are daily and zonally averaged AURA/MLS observations Limpasuvan et al, 2005) between 60-80 • N. The wind and temperature observations are consistent with the analysis of meteorological data in the Arctic of various winters (Labitzke and Kunze, 2009;Manney et al, 2009;Dörnbrack et al, 2012). In the beginning of January, when the vortex had the strongest intensity, the mean eastward zonal-winds strongly increased to 60-80 m s −1 .…”

Section: The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Eventssupporting

confidence: 48%

“…in December and January) revealing the edge of the Arctic polar Vortex. The dynamics of the Arctic winter 2009/2010 have been described in several studies (Wang and Chen, 2010;Dörnbrack et al, 2012;Kuttippurath and Nikulin, 2012). In early winter, planetary wave activity prevented the formation of a strong vortex in the lower stratosphere and the vortex eventually split at the beginning of December (minor stratospheric warming).…”

Section: Monthly Variation Of Zonal-windsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observation of horizontal winds in the middle-atmosphere between 30° S and 55° N during the northern winter 2009–2010

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Although the links between stratospheric dynamics, climate and weather have been demonstrated, direct observations of stratospheric winds are lacking, in particular at altitudes above 30 km. We report observations of winds between 8 and 0.01 hPa (~35–80 km) from October 2009 to April 2010 by the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) on the International Space Station. The altitude range covers the region between 35–60 km where previous space-borne wind instruments show a lack of sensitivity. Both zonal and meridional wind components were obtained, though not simultaneously, in the latitude range from 30° S to 55° N and with a single profile precision of 7–9 m s–1 between 8 and 0.6 hPa and better than 20 m s–1 at altitudes above. The vertical resolution is 5–7 km except in the upper part of the retrieval range (10 km at 0.01 hPa). In the region between 1–0.05 hPa, an absolute value of the mean difference < 2 m s–1 is found between SMILES profiles retrieved from different spectroscopic lines and instrumental settings. Good agreement (absolute value of the mean difference of ~2 m s–1) is also found with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis in most of the stratosphere except for the zonal winds over the equator (difference > 5 m s−1). In the mesosphere, SMILES and ECMWF zonal winds exhibit large differences (> 20 m s–1), especially in the tropics. We illustrate our results by showing daily and monthly zonal wind variations, namely the semi-annual oscillation in the tropics and reversals of the flow direction between 50–55° N during sudden stratospheric warmings. The daily comparison with ECMWF winds reveals that in the beginning of February, a significantly stronger zonal westward flow is measured in the tropics at 2 hPa compared to the flow computed in the analysis (difference of ~20 m s–1). The results show that the comparison between SMILES and ECMWF winds is not only relevant for the quality assessment of the new SMILES winds, but it also provides insights on the quality of the ECMWF winds themselves. Although the instrument was not specifically designed for measuring winds, the results demonstrate that space-borne sub-mm wave radiometers have the potential to provide good quality data for improving the stratospheric winds in atmospheric models.

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Section: The Sudden Stratospheric Warming Eventssupporting

confidence: 48%

Section: Monthly Variation Of Zonal-windsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation of horizontal winds in the middle-atmosphere between 30° S and 55° N during the northern winter 2009–2010

et al. 2013

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“…The prevailing cold temperatures in the stratosphere led to considerable denitrification and the strongest depletion of ozone measured in the Arctic . The Arctic winter 2009/2010, on the other hand, was rather warm in the climatological sense but was distinguished by an exceptionally cold stratosphere from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 that led to prolonged PSC formation and significant denitrification (Dörnbrack et al, 2012;.…”

Section: Arctic Winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, during mid-January orographic gravity waves were frequently excited by the flow over Greenland. A major warming in the second half of January (around 24 January) caused a displacement of the vortex to the European Arctic and also initiated the break-up of the vortex Dörnbrack et al, 2012).…”

Section: Arctic Winter 2009/2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulations of the Arctic winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 with Envisat/MIPAS and Aura/MLS observations

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We present model simulations with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERAInterim reanalyses for the Arctic winters 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. This study is the first to perform an extensive assessment of the performance of the EMAC model for Arctic winters as previous studies have only made limited evaluations of EMAC simulations which also were mainly focused on the Antarctic winter stratosphere. We have chosen the two extreme Arctic winters 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 to evaluate the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and the representation of the chemistry and dynamics of the polar winter stratosphere in EMAC. The EMAC simulations are compared to observations by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Soundings (Envisat/MIPAS) and the observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS). The Arctic winter 2010/2011 was one of the coldest stratospheric winters on record, leading to the strongest depletion of ozone measured in the Arctic. The Arctic winter 2009/2010 was, from the climatological perspective, one of the warmest stratospheric winters on record. However, it was distinguished by an exceptionally cold stratosphere (colder than the climatological mean) from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010, leading to prolonged PSC formation and existence. Significant denitrification, the removal of HNO 3 from the stratosphere by sedimentation of HNO 3 -containing polar stratospheric cloud particles, occurred in that winter. In our comparison, we focus on PSC formation and denitrification. The comparisons between EMAC simulations and satellite observations show that model and measurements compare well for these two Arctic winters (differences for HNO 3 generally within ±20 %) and thus that EMAC nudged toward ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses is capable of giving a realistic representation of the evolution of PSCs and associated sequestration of gas-phase HNO 3 in the polar winter stratosphere. However, simulated PSC volume densities are smaller than the ones derived from Envisat/MIPAS observations by a factor of 3-7. Further, PSCs in EMAC are not simulated as high up (in altitude) as they are observed. This underestimation of PSC volume density and vertical extension of the PSCs results in an underestimation of the vertical redistribution of HNO 3 due to denitrification/re-nitrification. The differences found here between model simulations and observations stipulate further improvements in the EMAC set-up for simulating PSCs.

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“…Dörnbrack et al, 2012). Figure 1 indicates the minimum temperature (T min ) as a function of day of the year (DOY) derived from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational forecasts on the 500 K potential temperature (PT) surface at equivalent latitudes (EQL) greater than 70 • N. The T min for the winter period of 2009/2010 was lower than 185 K from 1 January and became as low as 180 K on 7 January (see also Dörnbrack et al, 2012). Khosrawi et al (2011) reported that strong denitrification caused by the formation of PSCs was observed during the synoptic cooling event in mid-January 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of SMILES data to study ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2009/2010 and comparison with Odin/SMR data using assimilation techniques

et al. 2014

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Abstract. The Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave LimbEmission Sounder (SMILES) on board the International Space Station observed ozone in the stratosphere with high precision from October 2009 to April 2010. Although SMILES measurements only cover latitudes from 38 • S to 65 • N, the combination of data assimilation methods and an isentropic advection model allows us to quantify the ozone depletion in the 2009/2010 Arctic polar winter by making use of the instability of the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere. Ozone data from both SMILES and Odin/SMR (SubMillimetre Radiometer) for the winter were assimilated into the Dynamical Isentropic Assimilation Model for OdiN Data (DIAMOND). DIAMOND is an off-line wind-driven transport model on isentropic surfaces. Wind data from the operational analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used to drive the model. In this study, particular attention is paid to the cross isentropic transport of the tracer in order to accurately assess the ozone loss. The assimilated SMILES ozone fields agree well with the limitation of noise induced variability within the SMR fields despite the limited latitude coverage of the SMILES observations. Ozone depletion has been derived by comparing the ozone field acquired by sequential assimilation with a passively transported ozone field initialized on 1 December 2009. Significant ozone loss was found in different periods and altitudes from using both SMILES and SMR data: The initial depletion occurred at the end of January below 550K with an accumulated loss of 0.6-1.0 ppmv (approximately 20 %) by 1 April. The ensuing loss started from the end of February between 575 K and 650 K. Our estimation shows that 0.8-1.3 ppmv (20-25 %) of O 3 has been removed at the 600 K isentropic level by 1 April in volume mixing ratio (VMR).

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The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

Cited by 87 publications

References 30 publications

Observation of horizontal winds in the middle-atmosphere between 30° S and 55° N during the northern winter 2009–2010

Observation of horizontal winds in the middle-atmosphere between 30° S and 55° N during the northern winter 2009–2010

Comparison of ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulations of the Arctic winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 with Envisat/MIPAS and Aura/MLS observations

The use of SMILES data to study ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2009/2010 and comparison with Odin/SMR data using assimilation techniques

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