The 2017 General Election, Brexit and the Return to Two‐Party Politics: An Aggregate‐Level Analysis of the Result

Abstract

The outcome of the 2017 general election—a hung parliament—defied most predictions. In this article, we draw on aggregate‐level data to conduct an initial exploration of the vote. What was the impact of Brexit on the 2017 general election result? What difference did the collapse of UKIP make? And what was the relative importance of factors such as turnout, education, age and ethnic diversity on support for the two main parties? First, we find that turnout was generally higher in more pro‐remain areas, and places with high concentrations of young people, ethnic minorities and university graduates. Second, we find that the Conservatives made gains in the sort of places that had previously backed Brexit and previously voted for UKIP. But, third, we find that the gains the Conservatives made from the electoral decline of UKIP were offset by losses in the sort of places that had previously supported the Conservatives, particularly areas in southern England with larger numbers of graduates. The implication of these findings is that while a Brexit effect contributed to a ‘realignment on the right’, with the Conservative strategy appealing to people in places that had previously voted for UKIP, this strategy was not without an electoral cost, and appears to have hurt the party in more middle class areas.

Brexit and the 2017 UK General Election

“…Heath and Goodwin's () analysis of constituency‐level data show that Conservatives made gains from the electoral decline of UKIP in Leave‐supporting areas, but lost in more Remain‐supporting areas with large number of graduates and younger voters. There was also a slight tendency for Labour to perform better in Remain‐supporting constituencies (Heath and Goodwin, ). Jennings and Stoker, in their study of aggregate‐level constituency data, however, reject the description of the 2017 election as a ‘Brexit election’, since ‘the vote is better seen as a symptom of the longer‐term bifurcation of politics; less revenge of the “Remainers” and more a continuing battle of mobilisation between cosmopolitan and non‐cosmopolitan areas’ (Jennings and Stoker, , p. 359).…”

The “Youthquake” in British Politics: Myth or Reality?

“…The NME exit poll [9], and data from both Ipsos MORI [10] and the Essex Continuous Monitoring survey [11], pointed to there having been a considerable increase in youth turnout in the general election, and that this had contributed to the hung Parliament. Early research by Heath and Goodwin found that the biggest increases in turnout occurred in constituencies with the largest numbers of young people [12]. Organisations such as Bite the Ballot and the National Union of Students (NUS) campaigned to both register young people and persuade them to cast their ballots, and a sizeable number of young people registered to vote in the weeks after the general election was called [13,14].…”

Brexit, paz y Trump: enseñanzas para los economistas

“…Entre tanto, el líder de los laboristas aceptó la posición del Brexit. En las nuevas elecciones generales, la tendencia se revirtió: el laborismo se hizo más fuerte, y el UKIP y los conservadores perdieron fuerza (Heath y Goodwin, 2017).…”