The 7.7‐year North Atlantic Oscillation

Costa, Ewerton Marinho; Verdière, Alain Colin de

doi:10.1256/0035900021643692

Cited by 76 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…To this QD mode, the main contribution of the Atlantic Ocean comes from the regions sited to the south of Greenland, over the North Sea, and in the midlatitudes around 40°N (three upper latitudinal lobes of the SST3). Similarly to the results of Moron et al (1998) and da Costa and Colin de Verdiere (2002), this mode involves a phase opposition between the North Atlantic's subtropical and subpolar gyres, with a westerly intensification coinciding with a positive lobe off Cape Hatteras and negative lob off Newfoundland. In addition, we find that warm SST to the south of Greenland and cool SST to the south of Newfoundland and in the North Sea are related, with a delay of around 36 months, with warm LST in north-western Europe (or a few months earlier with opposite sign).…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 56%

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Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The relationships between the main patterns of variability of the Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and the European land-surface temperatures (LSTs) at interannual-to-multidecadal time scales are investigated along the period 1872-2004. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used firstly to obtain the main spatio-temporal patterns of variability of the LSTs and SSTs. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) is then used to decompose the time series associated with these patterns into nonlinear trends and quasi-periodic oscillations, searching for common oscillatory modes to the SSTs and LSTs. The potential predictability of the LSTs based on the SSTs is also analysed. Regarding the SSA results, three robust oscillations of periods around 13.7, 7.5 and 5.2 years, present both in the Atlantic SSTs and north-western European LSTs, were isolated. These oscillations were found to be associated mainly with a quadripolar SST pattern in the North Atlantic region, usually related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric mode of variability. The predictability study revealed that the SSTs of the Atlantic Ocean are able to account for about 12% of the north-western European LSTs variance. Additionally, an oscillatory component with period around 3.6 years was identified, but no significant connection between SST and LST was found for this mode. In addition, at this time scale, we find that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is leading the Atlantic SST quadripolar pattern by 6 months. Finally, the analysis of the nonlinear trends showed the presence of oscillations with periods around 60-100 years, both in the SSTs and LSTs. At these later time scales, our results reveal that the multidecadal behaviour of the southern European LSTs is related to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the period 1872-1940, unlike the northern and eastern European LSTs, while, during the period 1941-2004, the AMO sign seems to be present in whole Europe.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarkssupporting

confidence: 56%

“…Below 20°N, weak SST anomalies of the same sign as the one off Newfoundland extend over most of the basin, except in the south-western part of the ocean. How this atmospheric-oceanic structure emerges is a currently debated question (da Costa and Colin de Verdiere, 2002;Novotná, 2004, 2008).…”

Section: Quasi-decadal Oscillation Of Lst1mentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Gámiz‐Fortis

Esteban‐Parra

Pozo-Vázquez

et al. 2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Our finding of two dominant, 8-y and 12-y signals in the lake-level and precipitation time series is consistent with previous observational studies based on the analysis of instrumental record [26,27]. Near-decadal spectral peaks were also found to be ubiquitous in tree-ring-based proxy reconstructions of the Great Lakes water levels [32][33][34], as well as in such reconstructions of the NAO index known to be correlated with temperature and precipitation conditions over the Eastern and Central U.S. [35][36][37].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…The North Atlantic SST's north-south dipole pattern is similar in structure to spatial patterns identified by Moron et al [26] (Figure 10) and Da Costa and De Verdiere [27] (Figure 2), who analyzed SSTs and SLP fields and found a 7.7-y oscillation possibly rooted in coupled dynamics; the time scale and pattern of this oscillation (not shown) is remarkably similar to the ones associated with the ~8-y oscillation in the Michigan-Huron water levels, thus further substantiating our findings that the 8-y wintertime lake-level cycle is driven by processes in the North Atlantic region as opposed to those associated with the PNA in the North Pacific. We thus conclude that the 8-y cycle is initiated by temperature changes in the North Atlantic which modify long-wave synoptic patterns thus altering moisture transport and precipitation totals in the Great Lakes' region, thereby producing quasi-periodic lake-level changes during the winter months.…”

Section: The Pacific/north American Indexsupporting

confidence: 80%

Attribution of Decadal-Scale Lake-Level Trends in the Michigan-Huron System

Hanrahan

Roebber

Kravtsov

2014

Water

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This study disentangles causes of the Michigan-Huron system lake-level variability. Regional precipitation is identified as the primary driver of lake levels with sub-monthly time lag, implying that the lake-level time series can be used as a proxy for regional precipitation throughout most of the 1865-present instrumental record. Aside from secular variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the lake-level time series is dominated by two near-decadal cycles with periods of 8 and 12 years. A combination of correlation analysis and compositing suggests that the 8-y cycle stems from changes in daily wintertime precipitation amounts associated with individual storms, possibly due to large-scale atmospheric flow anomalies that affect moisture availability. In contrast, the 12-y cycle is caused by changes in the number of instances, or frequency, of summertime convective precipitation due to a preferred upper-air trough pattern situated over the Great Lakes. In recent decades, the lake-level budget exhibited an abnormal-relative to the remainder of the instrumental record-evaporation-driven trend, likely connected to regional signatures of anthropogenic climate change. The latter effect must be accounted for, along with the effects of precipitation, when assessing possible scenarios of future lake-level variability.

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“…[15] A 7 -8-year peak exists in instrumental records of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [Moron et al, 1998] and sea level pressure [Da Costa and Colin de Verdière, 2002], as well as in the North Atlantic Oscillation index [Wunsch, 1999]. Felis et al [2004] have shown 5 -6-year variability to persist in isotopic coral records from the northernmost Red Sea (Gulf of Aqaba) during the last interglacial, 120 kyr ago.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622–1922)

Kondrashov

Feliks

Ghil

2005

Geophysical Research Letters

116

100

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[1] The historical records of the low-and high-water levels of the Nile River are among the longest climatic records that have near-annual resolution. There are few gaps in the first part of the records (A.D. 622-1470) and larger gaps later (A.D. 1471 -1922). We apply advanced spectral methods, Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and the Multi-Taper Method (MTM), to fill the gaps and to locate interannual and interdecadal periodicities. The gap filling uses a novel, iterative version of SSA. Our analysis reveals several statistically significant features of the records: a nonlinear, data-adaptive trend that includes a 256-year cycle, a quasiquadriennial (4.2-year) and a quasi-biennial (2.2-year) mode, as well as additional periodicities of 64, 19, 12, and, most strikingly, 7 years. The quasi-quadriennial and quasi-biennial modes support the long-established connection between the Nile River discharge and the ElNiño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The longest periods might be of astronomical origin. The 7-year periodicity, possibly related to the biblical cycle of lean and fat years, seems to be due to North Atlantic influences.

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The 7.7‐year North Atlantic Oscillation

Cited by 76 publications

References 44 publications

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Variability of the monthly European temperature and its association with the Atlantic sea‐surface temperature from interannual to multidecadal scales

Attribution of Decadal-Scale Lake-Level Trends in the Michigan-Huron System

Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622–1922)

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