The ABCs of Keeping On Track to Graduation: Research Findings from Baltimore

Iver, Martha Abele Mac; Messel, Matthew

doi:10.1080/10824669.2013.745207

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Despite a lack of research on the persistence of ‘off‐track’ status among students as they progress through their school, there is an implied need within the literature to examine indicators early enough to effectively alter the path to dropout. Therefore, schools must pay particular attention to actions and behaviours exhibited during the middle school grades, prior to the ninth grade transition (Balfanz et al ., ; Bowers, ; MacIver & Messel, ). Some researchers have even argued for an earlier examination of off‐track status, such as when students are in fourth grade (Kieffer et al ., ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re‐envisioning the purpose of early warning systems: Shifting the mindset from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention

McMahon

Sembiante

2019

Review of Education

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Emphasis in school dropout literature has shifted from exploring wide‐ranging causes of dropping out to soliciting a smaller number of predictive indicators to identify students at increased risk for dropping out. However, much of the past decade's Early Warning research excludes indicators that do not add to the predictive nature of the model even if they might inform intervention. Considering this shift and the relative infancy of Early Warning research, this paper presents a critical systematic review of the literature surrounding dropout and Early Warning System(s) (EWS). Through a focus and evaluation of student‐level indicators, we present an argument of how an effective EWS can bridge the gap between the prediction of dropout events and underlying causes, while providing actionable information for schools to intervene. Finally, we present preliminary data that demonstrate the potential of elementary‐level student‐level indicators as an avenue for shifting the focus of EWS from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention. The results show how the student‐level indicators explored in this paper can effectively identify students at these grade levels who are on‐ and off‐track to graduation. We discuss the implications of evidence warranting the position that dropping out of school can be predicted as early as the elementary grade levels and its potential to drive future research in this area.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re‐envisioning the purpose of early warning systems: Shifting the mindset from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention

McMahon

Sembiante

2019

Review of Education

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“…Recent studies build on a growing canon of work on connecting EWS forecasts to action (Allensworth, 2013;Allensworth & Easton, 2005;Balfanz & Herzog, 2005;Mac Iver & Messel, 2013). For example, suggested that using EWS to provide additional instructional time for struggling students and professional development on improving classroom engagement for teachers can improve student achievement and reduce dropping out.…”

Section: Background and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 95%

Predicting High School Graduation and College Enrollment: Comparing Early Warning Indicator Data and Teacher Intuition

Soland

2013

Journal of Education for Students Placed at Risk (JESPAR)

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Each year, more districts implement early warning systems (EWS). These EWS predict negative student outcomes, such as dropping out, before they occur. Predictions are then used to match at-risk students to appropriate supports and interventions. Research suggests that these systems are useful in ensuring educators respond to student needs early, generating conversation around specific students at risk of dropping out. However, no research considers what new information teachers gain from having a specific prediction for a student. This article bridges this gap by comparing teacher and EWS predictions of whether students will complete high school and enroll in college. Further, it assesses whether accuracy in teacher judgment stems from additional information not in modelsespecially related to academic tenacity-and biases like self-fulfilling prophecies. Generally, EWS can provide benefits both as organizational tools and by increasing the precision with which students are identified for supports and interventions.Each year, more school districts implement early warning systems (EWS). These systems use data-early warning indicators (EWI)-to predict student outcomes (such as dropping out or failing to attend college) before they occur, and then to develop coherent supports and interventions around those forecasts. The most common use of these predictions is to help districts identify and support students at risk of dropping out or experiencing some other roadblock (Allensworth, 2013;Davis, Herzog, & Legters, 2013;Kemple, Segeritz, & Stephenson, 2013). In particular, research suggests that EWS help generate meaningful conversations around these atrisk students and, more broadly, organize coherent responses to their needs at an earlier stage in their schooling (Allensworth, 2013;Davis et al., 2013).Although research clearly demonstrates that EWS add value by generating conversations about students earlier than they might otherwise occur, few studies consider how, exactly, the data from EWS are useful once these conversations begin. What new information do teachers gain by having an EWS prediction, given what they already know about students from classroom observation and assessment? One could imagine EWS forecasts help teachers because the predictions add precision, perhaps helping identify students as at risk who, otherwise, appear Correspondence should be addressed to

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“…Studies that focus on "early warning indicators" for high school students have similarly identified absenteeism as a key factor. Using information about Chicago and Baltimore high school students respectively, Allensworth (2013) and MacIvera & Messel (2013) find that freshman year attendance is an important factor in determining both course success and high school graduation. In one of the only studies to focus specifically on chronic absenteeism across all age groups, Balfanz and Byrnes (2012) document the importance of looking at all grade levels to understand the consequences of this new policy designation.…”

Section: Consequences Of Excessive Absenteeismmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of chronic absence and student achievement

London

Sanchez²,

Castrechini

2016

EPAA

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Students with low attendance miss important learning and developmental opportunities and research has shown that they are at heightened risk of negative outcomes. Although there is an extensive body of research on truancy, chronic absenteeism is not generally measured or tracked in school data systems and is therefore not as well understood. This analysis uses linked, longitudinal administrative records to examine chronic absence across years for elementary and secondary school students. We investigate chronic absence patterns over time, ramifications of chronic absence on students’ educational outcomes, and effects of continued absence across school years. Results illustrate the cumulative nature of chronic absence and the negative role of persistent chronic absence on students’ educational outcomes. We discuss implications of these results for state policies and intervention procedures.

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The ABCs of Keeping On Track to Graduation: Research Findings from Baltimore

Cited by 36 publications

References 4 publications

Re‐envisioning the purpose of early warning systems: Shifting the mindset from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention

Re‐envisioning the purpose of early warning systems: Shifting the mindset from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention

Predicting High School Graduation and College Enrollment: Comparing Early Warning Indicator Data and Teacher Intuition

The dynamics of chronic absence and student achievement

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