The asymmetric impact of natural disasters on China's bilateral trade

Abstract

Abstract. Globalization and technological revolutions are making the world more interconnected. International trade is an important approach linking the world. Since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan shocked the global supply chain, more attention has been paid to the global impact of large-scale disasters. China is the second largest trader in the world and faces frequent natural disasters. Therefore, this study proposes a gravity model for China's bilateral trade tailored to national circumstances and estimates the impact of natural disasters in China and trading partner countries on Chinese imports and exports. We analyzed Chinese and trading partner statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Study results show the following: (1) China's natural disasters have a positive impact on exports but have no significant impact on imports; (2) trading partner countries' natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports; (3) both development level and land area of the partners are important in determining the intensity of natural disaster impacts on China's bilateral trade. The above findings suggest that the impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, which demand further study.

Understanding government's role in integrated disaster risk governance

“…Integrated disaster risk governance (IDRG) is not only an important work in social management, but also a basic work to realize the sustainable development of social economy (Shi, 2019; Shi, Xu, & Wang, 2016). In recent years, the frequent occurrence of major disasters all over the world has caused great harm to the safety of life on earth (Alexander, 2006; Meng, Yang, Shi, & Jeager, 2015), including human beings, and also has a wide impact on the sustainable development of the world's social economy (Kong, Lv, & Wang, 2018b; Kong, Wang, Lv, Meng, & Shi, 2018a). Therefore, it has become an extremely important and urgent task for the whole society to find effective ways to prevent disaster risk, improve the utilization efficiency and efficiency of disaster prevention and mitigation resources, and realize scientific development based on people's livelihood (Ikeda & Nagasaka, 2011).…”

Better understanding positive and negative impacts of disasters on regional economies, with special reference to China

“…As the impact of disasters on economic and social development and human life welfare cannot be ignored (Cavallo & Cavallo, 2010; Kong, Wang, & Lv, 2018; Meng, Yang, Shi, & Jeager, 2015), entire fields have arisen to better understand and respond. For the purposes of this Forum contribution, I start with disaster economics and its applicable implications (Cavallo & Cavallo, 2010).…”

“…Discussions of core impacts on the macroeconomy typically focus on whether the disasters have a positive or negative impact on the regional social and economic development, how large the impact is, and the estimation of indirect economic losses. Due, however, to the different characteristics of regional background, environment and socio‐economic development, actual disaster impacts vary by region and are more complex than summary terms, like “long‐term positive impacts” or “long‐term negative impacts,” convey (Alexander, 2006; Kong, Wang, Lv, Meng, & Shi, 2018; Kong, Lv, & Wang, 2018; Meng et al, 2015; Felbermayr & Gröschl, 2014; James, 1994). Determination of impacts at the regional or sub‐regional scales is an empirical issue, case by case, that cannot be settled beforehand.…”

“…Other scholars respond by arguing that since 1950, most of the countries with low frequency of disasters are developed countries, while many of the less developed countries are prone to disasters. There are those in contrast who hold that “disasters have no impact on macroeconomy,” if the undoubtedly positive and negative impacts balance each other out over an unspecifiable period of time (Kong, Wang, et al, 2018; Meng et al, 2015; Zhang, Zheng, & Zhang, 2014).…”

Better Understanding the Catastrophe Risk in Interconnection and Comprehensive Disaster Risk Defense Capability, with Special Reference to China

“…The dramatic increases in the depth and breadth of human activities have deeply influenced the natural and humanistic disaster-formative environments [8]. The instability of the natural and humanistic disaster-formative environments are greatly increasing through the process of "gradual change, accumulation, mutation" [7,9]. The frequencies and durations of various kinds of hazards are increasing in the Anthropocene era [7,10].…”