The Boomers Are Coming: A Total Cost of Care Model of The Impact of Population Aging on The Cost of Chronic Conditions in The United States

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of population aging on medical costs over the next five decades in the United States. Specifically, we focus on the impact of aging on the chronic and/or expensive conditions most often included in disease management programs: coronary artery disease (CAD), congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, asthma, pregnancy, psychiatry, and chemical dependency. We apply estimated age-, gender-, and condition-specific annualized costs to the projected US population in each age and gender group for future years, through 2050, to provide an estimate of future healthcare costs. The primary data sources are pooled claims and membership for 2002 and 2003 for HealthPartners, a large midwestern health plan. Secondary sources are US annualized medical costs for 2003 and US Census Bureau demographic projections for the next five decades. Using the Episodes Treatment Group (ETG) grouper from Symmetry, we grouped HealthPartners data into 574 clinically meaningful episodes of care units. We then aggregate selected ETGs into the conditions reported in this study. Using data for all types of health services, we find that aging will have a greater impact on per capita costs for diseases where the ratio of costs for older versus younger ages is greater, such as CHF, CAD, and diabetes. In addition, we project that aging of the US population will actually reduce per capita costs for pregnancy and infertility, chemical dependency, and psychiatric conditions. Aging will have more of an impact on care for specific chronic diseases. These projections can inform health policy and planning as providers of health care, health plans, disease management vendors, and the government anticipate meeting future US healthcare needs.

In‐hospital outcomes of very elderly patients (85 years and older) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

“…Very elderly patients (aged 85 years or older), formed a small but not insignificant proportion of patients undergoing PCI at our institution (2.3%). As the worldwide population ages, this number is expected to increase, placing a huge financial burden on health care resources [18]. A greater proportion of the cohort was female, in keeping with the generally higher life expectancy of women compared with men.…”

Depression and Coping in Heart Failure Patients

“…1 The estimated direct and indirect medical costs for management of heart failure in 2008 is $34.8 billion, 1 and this high expense is expected to increase 75% over the next 40 years as baby boomers continue to age. 6 Symptoms of heart failure often include shortness of breath, fluid retention, and fatigue. 7 These symptoms are often progressive, and functional class tends to deteriorate over time.…”

Preparing for an Epidemic of Limited Health Literacy: Weathering the Perfect Storm

“…Specifically, the population over the age of 65 is expected to grow from 13% to 20% between 2005 and 2030, along with steady increases in the prevalence of chronic conditions. 17 The elderly have the highest prevalence of chronic diseases and greatest need for self-management skills. Our health care system will have to cope with both an aging America and younger generations that will likely place a greater burden simultaneously on Medicaid and safety net providers for the uninsured and underinsured.…”