The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-Term Impact of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic the South American Way

Abstract

Orlic, and Uros Randelovic for excellent research assistance. This project was made possible by a Provost Research Grant and funds from the Brazil Initiative at Brandeis University. The usual disclaimer applies. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Disease, Downturns, and Wellbeing: Economic History and the Long-Run Impacts of COVID-19

“…In low-income settings with minimal public health intervention, even higher incomes only did so much to buffer these shocks: in a sample of high-SES children in Japan, Ogasawara (2018) finds that in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic reduced boys' and girls' heights by 0.28 cm and 0.14 cm, respectively-magnitudes which in other studies have been associated with substantial increases in the probability of type II diabetes, osteoarthritis, and heart disease. The long-run results seen in Japan, as in Guimbeau et al (2020) in Brazil, are consistent with sex differences in resilience to adverse health shocks.…”

“…These include substantial reductions in high school completion rates, wages, and socioeconomic status, alongside large increases in the probability of living in poverty, the receipt of welfare payments, the likelihood of incarceration, and-particularly among men-the probability of physical disability. That these adverse outcomes exist in spite of a pandemic-induced increase in miscarriages, stillbirths, and infant mortality rates (see, e.g., Guimbeau et al, 2020;Mamelund, 2004)-all culling forces which likely resulted in a pool of survivors if anything positively selected on health-is a testament to the catastrophic extent of pandemic scarring.…”

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19

“…Neelsen and Stratmann (2012) find a negative education effect in Switzerland, although the effects are about one fifth of the magnitude of Almond (2006). Nelson (2010) and Guimbeau, Menon and Musacchio (2020) find strong evidence that the 1918 pandemic had lasting effects on human capital development in Brazil.…”

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2020: COVID-19 and Human Capital

“…Differences in human capital have very long-run effects: differences in primary school enrollment in 1900 account for most of the difference in GDP per capita in 2000 (Glaeser and others 2004). Any gap in human capital accumulation that arises today because of the pandemic may have long-lasting effects, not only for countries but also for individuals, as shown by the long-term effects on education and health of children born during the 1918 flu pandemic (Almond 2006;Guimbeau, Menon, and Musacchio 2020).…”

“…The first is the direct effect stemming from the disease itself. Evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic indicates that cohorts of children exposed in utero to the disease showed worse health and education outcomes several years later (Almond 2006;Guimbeau, Menon, and Musacchio 2020). There is recent evidence that COVID-19 infections could negatively affect pregnant mothers and may lead to premature births (Savasi and others 2020), although it is still too early to draw conclusions in this respect.…”